To win over the bond market, it has to be Dishy Rishi

Tim Martin is the CEO of JD Wetherspoon

In selecting the next Prime Minister, MPs need to bear in mind that the terrible twins, the bond market and inflation,  feeling increasingly disrespected by central bankers and politicians , are angry and emotional – and are watching their every move.

The mere revelation on Friday that big-spender Boris Johnson was back in the ring, to take another swing, was enough to cause the pound to fall and interest rates to rise. 

The market, unlike the Lord, as Warren Buffett once said, does not forgive those who know not what they do.

Years ago, President Clinton’s  adviser, James Carville, joked that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market , since he could then “intimidate everybody”.

The unfortunate Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, inheritors of colossal government debt, saw the truth behind Carville’s joke when they were perceived to have disrespected the bond market with their mini-budget. 

So did PM John Major and the entire economic establishment, in the early 1990s , when their attempts  to foist the wretched exchange rate mechanism – the predecessor of the euro – on a reluctant UK public ended in ignominy.

Why such power? Political leaders throughout the world, including our own, need to borrow money, on a grand scale, to keep the show on the road.

Since the twitchy bond markets feel they’ve been taken for granted for a long time, common sense and the ability to create a sensible economic plan must be the main criteria for a new leader.

The least qualified is Boris who is a stranger to planning – and who spent like a sailor on shore leave during his tenure in number 10. 

Also, very dangerously, Boris  apparently thinks he’s king of the world – which might wind up the real king, the bond market.

As for Rishi, for many voters he was a partner in crime to the Boris borrowing binge, so the markets will have some doubts. 

Indeed Shania Twain may have had Rishi in mind when she said, “You’ve got the looks, but have you got the touch?”

Rishi’s  reasonable defence is that Boris was the financial éminence grise, issuing profligate spending orders galore, whereas he, merely the finance director, needed to square the circle by raising taxes to astronomical levels- in spite of his better instincts.

The other main contender, Penny Mordaunt, comes with a couple of dodgy references and, perhaps for business readers, a lack of evidence of commercial success on civvy street.

Most worrying, for a Brexiteer at least, is that she “wasn’t accountable or always visible”, according to the doyen of Brexit negotiators, Lord Frost.

Also worrying, perhaps, are the recent reports that Penny was unwilling to play “second fiddle” to Rishi Sunak, if he became Prime Minister.

If you won’t play second fiddle to Rishi, you might not want to play second fiddle to the bond market – which would, to quote the Taylor Swift song, be trouble, trouble, trouble.

Brexit’s not to blame

For obscure reasons, many people blame this undoubtedly chaotic state of affairs on Brexit.

Indeed, since the EU President is not subject to judgement at the ballot box, you are unlikely to witness this sort of fratricidal maelstrom, heightened by General Election angst, in Brussels.

What you are really seeing in the UK is democracy in action. Egotism, irrationality, feckless candidates, false promises and financial recklessness.

The strange paradox about democracy is that it works.

Look at any list of the richest countries per capita and those with the greatest level of human rights and freedoms- and democracies win hands down.

The problem with the EU, not always recognised by its proponents, is that it’s becoming more undemocratic –  unelected presidents, MEPs who cannot initiate legislation and a court of justice that is not subject to parliamentary control.

So let’s  be thankful for the chaotic but democratic UK. You may think that the present contenders for prime minister offer  an unpalatable choice. That may indeed be true- welcome to the real world. 

Finally, which leadership candidate, on balance, stands the best chance of placating Mr Bond? He may not impress you much, but it just has to be Dishi Rishi.

Tim Martin is the CEO of JD Wetherspoon