The great Tory comeback? The public’s gonna need a lot of convincing
A sceptical British public is not willing to listen to Tory promises of credibility after 14 years of government, writes Matthew Lesh
Party conferences are a self-important affair for the government and His Majesty’s Official Opposition. The ring of steel around the venues, the airport-style security and heavily armed police officers. The nation’s top political journalists forced to drink warm white wine and perform karaoke. The adoring party members wanting selfies with their favourite (last night I overheard one young Tory brag that they had touched James Cleverly).
Yet for all the fanfare and media attention, it is difficult to believe these conferences make one iota of difference.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer had what felt like a successful outing in Liverpool at the Labour Party conference last week – helped by Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s unvarnished leadership manoeuvres uniting the party faithful behind their leader. Yet, the party’s poll ratings remain unchanged in the latest City PM / Freshwater Strategy Poll: Labour is still on just 20 per cent, down 15 points since the election last year.
Reform, which Starmer labelled ‘racist’ for their immigration policy, has seen their vote pick up by two points to 35 per cent since last month. While swings are never uniform across the nation, on the face of it this would give Reform an extraordinary 438 seats, compared to just 74 for Labour and 20 for the Tories. To put that shift in perspective, a party that has never been in government would be delivered a parliamentary landslide larger than Labour’s current majority.
At its core, Starmer’s largely forgettable conference speech did nothing to shift the reality that the government is failing to deliver on its priorities and that more fiscal pain is ahead. A majority (56 per cent) expect the economy to worsen over the next year (despite talk of growth, growth, growth), while 43 per cent expect their own household finances to deteriorate. A majority (57 per cent) believe next month’s budget will leave them worse off, while just eight per cent expect to be better off. Three-quarters (78 per cent) are not confident that the government will get control of small boat crossings, a major political headache with immigration now the public’s number one issue.
Starmer attempted to portray himself as a genuine patriot, taking the fight to Reform and its leader, Nigel Farage. But this message has yet to get through. Our poll shows that much of the public remains sceptical of Starmer’s patriotic appeal, with voters evenly split (44 per cent patriotic, 43 per cent unpatriotic), while Farage is widely viewed as patriotic (59 per cent to 29 per cent).
The mood at Tory Party Conference
Today, the Conservatives are gathered in Manchester. Last year’s conference felt almost like a fever dream, a surreal spectacle intensified by the chaos of the leadership contest. This year, there’s an eerie atmosphere, with the large venue feeling much quieter compared to when the party used to be in power.
Conservatives hope that announcements on withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to deport illegal immigrants and repealing the Climate Change Act to lower energy bills will begin to grab attention, reverse their fortunes and show they are a more serious alternative than Reform. Today’s City PM / Freshwater Strategy poll finds that these are not unpopular ideas, with support from 46 per cent and 49 per cent, respectively.
The Conservatives aim to challenge not only the government but also Reform on economic credibility. The economic backdrop is bleak, with persistent cost-of-living pressures, falling employment and soaring debt-servicing costs. Meanwhile, Reform is increasingly tacking to the left on economics, promising higher spending and the nationalisation of key utilities. The Tories hope that refocusing the debate on economic management will play to the centre-right’s natural strengths.
But the fundamental question is whether the public is yet willing to listen to a party that just spent 14 years in government. Their promises – from fixing Britain’s broken planning system to growing the economy – are nothing new. It’s challenging to demonstrate that you are now capable and serious from the opposition benches. Whether the public will be willing to give them another shot before the next election, or whether the party’s chances are now sealed with a new alternative on the right, is now the essential unanswered question.
Over the last few weeks, Britain’s political elite have gathered to plot their comebacks and rehearse their slogans. The trouble is, the public may have already moved on.
Matthew Lesh is country manager at Freshwater Strategy