Nova Hawk to land the Coronation for France
WITH plenty more rain expected to fall at Ascot, it’s extremely hard to confidently predict what the official going description will be come race time this afternoon. I’m working on the basis that the ground will be good to soft, but you can monitor the situation by following me live from Ascot on Twitter @BillEsdaile.
Now, the feature race on the penultimate day of the Royal meeting sees a field of 13 fillies line up for the Coronation Stakes at 3.45pm. They include American raider More Than Real, not to mention the second, third, fourth and fifth horses home in this year’s QIPCO 1000 Guineas.
Aidan O’Brien’s Together finished second in both the English and Irish renewals of the Guineas and is undoubtedly the one they all have to beat. However, she is pretty skinny at just 7/2 with Star Sports for a filly who hasn’t actually won any of her last eight starts. She finished behind More Than Real at the Breeders’ Cup last November and doesn’t appear to find winning that easy.
For that reason, I’d far rather look for some value and will give another chance to French raider NOVA HAWK at around the 10/1 mark. Our selection relishes cut in the ground and ran a cracker to finish fourth at Newmarket on ground that was too quick for her. She was then by no means disgraced finishing fourth in the French Guineas and I’m strongly of the opinion that she is much better on a round course.
It’s hard to oppose NATHANIEL in the King Edward VII Stakes (3.05pm) now that the rain has arrived. He was only just seen off by Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase and that colt went on to finish a whisker behind Pour Moi in the Derby.
His biggest danger could well be the unexposed Mijhaar who bolted up in his maiden last time. Timeline, the runner-up that day, has since boosted the form and Roger Varian’s colt could be anything. However, he’ll have to be very good to beat our selection and the 3/1 available with William Hill makes plenty of appeal.
Today’s card gets underway with the Albany Stakes (2.30pm) and Jim Bolger’s Teolane is certain to go off favourite. She was an impressive winner of a Listed sprint at Naas last time, but is yet to run on anything softer than good to firm, so I wouldn’t want to be taking a short price on her when we don’t know how soft it’s going to be.
Tom Dascombe has already trained his first Royal Ascot winner this week and I think he can be in the winner’s enclosure again with SWITCHER. She won impressively on debut at Haydock on good ground and her sire is Whipper who was a Group One-winning horse on soft in France. The draw in nine isn’t bad and she is a decent each-way price at 10/1 with William Hill.
Ante-post punters got their fingers burnt when William Haggas decided to pull out GREEN DESTINY from Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup, but compensation awaits in the Wolferton at 4.25pm. The progressive four-year-old turned a competitive Newmarket handicap on Guineas day into a procession and he should take all the beating here.
Aidan O’Brien won last year’s Queen’s Vase (5.00pm) with Mikhail Glinka 12 months ago and he is set to saddle the favourite again in Regent Street. However, although the Galileo colt has been running in some top races this season, there’s no guarantee that he will stay this two mile trip. I’d rather take a chance on Roger Varian’s ITTIRAD who has form with cut in the ground and looked last time as if he’d relish the step up in distance.
The closing Buckingham Palace Stakes (5.35pm) is fiercely competitive, but my eye is drawn to two ‘Dandy’ Nicholls runners. Firstly, COURAGEOUS hasn’t been in the best of form, but he has slipped to a very attractive mark and Kieren Fallon is an eye-catching booking. He is drawn against the favoured stands rail in 31, right next to his stablemate DOCOFTHEBAY in 32 and they are both worth backing each-way.
Pointers…
SWITCHER e/w Ascot 2.30pm
NATHANIEL Ascot 3.05pm
NOVA HAWK e/w Ascot 3.45pm
GREEN DESTINY Ascot 4.25pm
ITTIRAD e/w Ascot 5.00pm
COURAGEOUS e/w Ascot 5.35pm
DOCOFTHEBAY e/w Ascot 5.35pm