Why Goldman thinks its $50 oil forecast could be wrong June 30, 2016 Most oil market pundits will tell you how hard it is to predict where the black stuff is heading. And while Goldman Sachs is the most influential commodities bank, like pretty much every forecaster, it has been known to get things wrong. Now it's said that crude could trade below its $50 forecast in the second half [...]
Sterling dives as Mark Carney lays the groundwork for an interest rate cut June 30, 2016 The pound took a dive against the euro and the dollar this afternoon, after Bank of England governor Mark Carney laid the groundwork for an interest rate cut. The pound fell as much as one per cent against the euro, to €1.1941, and 1.1 per cent against the dollar, to $1.3280, before beginning to edge up. Meanwhile, the [...]
Mark Carney prepares to cut rates and raises prospect of more quantitative easing June 30, 2016 The governor of the Bank of England has told markets to expect a cut in interest rates as he warned the economy was in for a period of prolonged uncertainty and significantly slower growth in the wake of the EU referendum. In his second intervention since the UK voted to walk away from the EU, [...]
South Africa posts record trade surplus after exports of precious metals and stones sky-rockets June 30, 2016 South Africa reported a whopping R18.7bn (£928m) trade surplus today, outdoing expectations. Exports rose 14 per cent to R104.7bn on a month-on-month basis, driven by a 49.1 per cent increase in precious metals and stones and a 10.4 per cent increase in mineral products exports. Imports were down 6.6 per cent to R86bn, the South African Revenue Service [...]
OBR scraps July fiscal sustainability report due to Brexit vote fallout June 30, 2016 The UK's fiscal watchdog scrapped its medium-term forecast which was due out next month, citing uncertainty from the UK's decision to leave the European Union. The OBR said Brexit uncertainty meant it wasn't currently worth making estimates using its previous prediction. This means the first official economic forecast post-vote will be the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report due out in August. Read more: [...]
Crack out the Jack Daniel’s: Sterling bond issuance lives after Brexit vote June 30, 2016 Two sterling-denominated debt deals launched today, a week after the UK voted to leave the European Union. British American Tobacco (BAT) is reportedly selling a five-year benchmark bond totalling £500m. And US drinks company Brown-Forman, which makes Jack Daniel’s and Finlandia vodka, is in the market with a £300m, 12-year deal. It also announced a €300m [...]
What does the Brexit vote mean for the public finances? June 30, 2016 Economists have warned the government's debt pile is set to jump following the UK's decision to leave the European Union. With growth forecasts being slashed and many fearing the UK is on the brink of a recession, the chances of the UK eradicating its budget deficit by the end of the decade are look slimmer. [...]
Before the bell: What you need to know before the US market open June 30, 2016 The Fed's stress tests were failed by two European banks further buffeting stocks hit by the Brexit vote, while Wall Street lenders have announced share-buyback plans. Here's what you need to know before the US market open at 2:30pm London time. Futures are pointing down ahead of the open, with the S&P off by 0.16 per [...]
Did Boris Johnson just move the currency markets? June 30, 2016 Traders have managed to keep a cool head today, despite the fallout from the UK's vote to leave the EU continuing to shock the political world, and many clamouring to link the two. The FTSE 100 was down, then up, then flat in the first half of the day's trading, standing unchanged at 6,357 at lunchtime. [...]
Eurozone back in inflation for first time in five months June 30, 2016 Existential crises, political arguments and the clamour for referendums aside, the Eurozone nudged back towards a semblance of normality today, with a return to inflation in June. Price rose by 0.1 per cent in the year to June, according to the official EU stats body, Eurostat, ticking into positive territory for the first time since January. Cheaper energy [...]
