FTSE 100 Live: Stocks to jump as Trump hints at Hormuz deal; UK recession warning

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Donald Trump speaking at a desk, gesturing with hands, wearing a dark suit and red tie.
Welcome back to City PM's FTSE 100 live blog (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr. via PA)

Welcome back to the City PM liveblog.

The London stock market looks set to start the new week on the front foot after Donald Trump hinted a deal between US and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz is near.

The US President has said that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Iran have asked him to call off military strikes that were set to take place over the weekend.

“The reason they asked is they think there’s a deal, there’s a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on the nuclear,” Trump added.

It comes ahead of further talks between the two warring nations taking place on Monday afternoon. A deal would be set to unleash a relief rally across global stock markets, though investors may hold some scepticism following the back-and-forth of the last few months over whether the thornier parts of an agreement can be confirmed.

On the domestic front, the latest EY economic outlook has handed a dreary warning to new Chancellor John Healey that the economy could teeter on recession next year.

It forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP) could reduce to just to 0.5 per cent this year and contract by 0.2 per cent next year if the war between the US and Iran is not resolved and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.

It predicts this could see inflation soar to 6.4 per cent by the end of 2026 due to surging oil and energy prices.

“Ongoing disruption to global energy markets will now start to test this economic resilience,” Peter Arnold, EY UK chief economist, said.

EY slashed its business investment forecast to a fall of 0.7 per cent in 2026, down from a previous forecast for it to remain stable.

We’ll be bringing you the latest market and economic updates throughout the day.

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