Mark Carney’s Canadian win presents an opportunity for UK businesses
Mark Carney’s agenda, designed to offset the damage of a fraying US-Canada trade relationship, presents an opportunity for UK businesses, writes Michael Martins
When my mother told me on Monday night – just before Canadian polls closed – that she’d voted Conservative for the first time in decades because she was “tired of the Liberals” and the “country wanted change”, I assumed Mark Carney was finished.
Her riding, just north of Toronto, has mirrored the national result in nearly every federal election for the past half century. I went to bed on Canadian election night thinking the media had missed the mood, the polling was off and that a Conservative government would soon be installed in Ottawa for the first time in over a decade. It would have been a dramatic end to what was already a volatile and unusually ideological campaign.
I’m pleased to report she was wrong – though my satisfaction is more about my mother being wrong than about who is Canada’s new Prime Minister. Despite Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s disciplined, aggressive campaign, it turns out Canadians preferred a steadier hand. Carney, the former Bank of England governor who won his first ever seat in the House of Commons on the night, successfully cast himself as the experienced adult in the room, without the political baggage.
How Carney triumphed
In a more conventional race, parachuting in a technocrat with no electoral track record and limited name recognition might have looked desperate. But this wasn’t a normal campaign. Called in the shadow of a spiralling trade war with the United States, Canada’s largest economic and investment partner, the tone was defined by external anxiety as much as domestic grievance. And Carney’s campaign played directly to that unease, highlighting his record managing economic crises and positioning him as the only leader who could credibly handle what came next.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and his belligerent language on trade and sovereignty, has rattled many Canadians. No one seriously expected tanks on the US side of the Peace Bridge, which connects the two countries, but the threat of American economic coercion – through tariff hikes and regulatory disruption – is and was real. Carney and Poilievre both adopted hawkish tones on defending Canadian sovereignty as a result. But Carney’s team more successfully framed Poilievre as a MAGA-adjacent culture warrior who couldn’t be trusted with the economy. That framing stuck, and in the end, Canadians opted for perceived calm over overt confrontation.
How UK businesses could benefit
Canadians’ choice matters for British business. Carney’s agenda is explicitly designed to offset the damage of a fraying US-Canada trade relationship – and it creates three immediate opportunities for UK Plc.
First, Carney wants to remove internal trade barriers between Canadian provinces. For years, it’s been easier for Toronto to trade with New York than with Montreal. Fixing that would allow UK firms with a footprint in Canada to scale more easily across the country – without navigating 13 different regulatory regimes.
Second, he wants deeper economic ties with allies beyond the US, and he’s named the UK as a top priority. A refreshed bilateral trade agreement, building on the existing post-Brexit rollover deal, could move quickly. That’s a rare chance to improve market access without years of negotiation.
Third, he’s pledged to cut taxes to lift household spending. In parallel, Canadian boycotts of US brands are gaining traction. UK consumer goods exporters – particularly in food, drink, health and lifestyle – now have a window to expand in a wealthy, culturally aligned market.
Carney’s win isn’t just a vote for continuity. It’s a unique moment for UK businesses to expand internationally. They should seize it before someone else does.
Michael Martins is founding partner of Overton Advisory, former political specialist at the US Embassy in London and former leadership campaign staffer to Martha Hall Findlay MP, Liberal Party of Canada leadership candidate