Ignore the climate alarmism – the biggest polluter is poverty
Instead of being scared by sensationalist rhetoric into spending trillions on policies that won’t work, we should remember the remarkable progress nations have made on the environment as they have become richer, says Bjorn Lomborg
As we mark Earth Day, it’s tempting to believe that the world is on the brink of environmental collapse. We are constantly inundated by dire predictions of climate catastrophe and warnings about the planet’s imminent destruction. But this is misleading. Rather than spiralling into panic, we should take a moment to appreciate the remarkable progress we’ve made in improving the environment – and acknowledge that a key factor is prosperity.
When Earth Day was first marked 55 years ago, the world faced some grim environmental challenges. Rivers were catching fire and cities were choked with smog. Air and water pollution were rampant, especially in the industrialized West. Today, outdoor air pollution has declined dramatically in rich countries. Over the past three decades, death risk from air pollution has spectacularly declined by over 70 per cent, while waterways have become cleaner and nations reforested.
Yet, in poorer countries, the picture is more complicated. That’s because as nations come out of poverty, industrialisation at first increases pollution, before nations become rich enough to tackle it. But even in the developing world, progress is being made. Look at China – once notorious for its severe pollution, it is now actively cleaning up its air and water.
For the 7bn people who don’t live in the rich world, outdoor air pollution became worse between 1990 and about 2015. But as emissions, especially of sulfur, have peaked and started declining, deaths from outdoor air pollution in poor countries have actually slightly declined.
Moreover, when focusing on pictures of smoggy Asian megacities, we miss the much deadlier air pollution that takes place indoors for the world’s poorest people. This overlooked problem stems from energy poverty where people are forced to rely on traditional biomass – wood, cardboard, and dung – to cook and keep warm. The World Health Organization estimates that 2.1bn people live in homes that are many-times more polluted than even the worst outside days in Delhi or Beijing, equivalent to each person smoking two packs of cigarettes daily. Even today, indoor air pollution kills more than 3m people each year.
Yet, a spectacular Earth Day fact that almost no one celebrates is that indoor air pollution for the non-rich world has more than halved since 1990. That means more than 4m lives are saved each year.
How did this progress happen? Through prosperity, meaning fewer poor people rely on dung and cardboard to cook and keep warm; instead they use much cleaner and better energy sources like natural gas and electricity.
Indeed, in many ways the greatest polluter is poverty. When people are struggling to survive, environmental concerns take a backseat. But as countries get richer, they can invest in cleaner technologies, regulate industries, and focus on improving public health. Prosperity doesn’t just lead to better living standards and nutrition and people becoming more resilient to environmental challenges – it also actively makes societies improve their environment.
There is a clear connection between a nation’s income and its environmental performance. The richer a country becomes, the better it handles its environment, as shown by Yale University’s Environmental Performance Index. A society that is focused on economic development can not only lift people out of poverty but will also address pollution and invest in sustainable practices.
Unfortunately, Earth Day and its broader environmental movement often ignore practical solutions, instead favoring sensationalism. Many of the environmental predictions that gained widespread attention in the 1970s turned out to be alarmist and wrong. We were told that we would run out of most resources, that overpopulation would lead to global catastrophe, and that we would need to wear gas masks outside by the year 1985. None of these predictions materialised, but they nonetheless fueled a culture of fear and misallocation of resources.
Climate change is not an existential threat
We’re seeing this pattern repeat today, particularly when it comes to climate change. Yes, climate change is a real challenge, but we must keep it in perspective. It is not the existential threat that some would have us believe. In fact, over the past century deaths from climate-related disasters – such as storms, floods, droughts, and wildfires – have declined by a remarkable 98 per cent. This is not because the environment has remained static, but because human innovation and adaptation have made us more resilient.
The reality is we are not on the precipice of doom. Instead of being scared by sensationalist rhetoric into spending trillions of dollars on poor climate policies, we should focus on practical, smart solutions that can make a real difference. In the case of climate change, this means investing in green energy innovation. When it comes to one of the world’s biggest environmental challenges, we should end indoor air pollution and save 3m lives each year, mostly through prosperity and access to clean, cheap, and reliable energy.
As we mark Earth Day, we shouldn’t panic but instead celebrate the immense environmental progress we’ve made – and will make, as long as prosperity continues.
Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus, visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and author of “False Alarm” and “Best Things First”.