Wednesday 29 November 2023 1:55 pm

COP28: Five things to watch out for as the global climate conference starts in Dubai

Dubai will play host to some 167 world leaders for the next two weeks

The world’s most public climate change audit gets underway tomorrow in Dubai. Around 167 world leaders, including the Pope and King Charles III, will descend on the United Arab Emirates for COP28.

While some cynics may look at it as a talking shop where not enough discussion leads to action, it does offer a chance for thought-leaders to co-ordinate.

The hope is that the two-week event will result in consensus and collaborative action to reduce the world’s soaring global temperatures.

But what specifically should you look out for from the summit?

Inventory

Greenhouse gas emissions remain one of the most significant inconvenient truths around the global climate change discourse. In many countries where renewable infrastructure at scale doesn’t yet exist, oil and gas are essential to keep the lights on.

That said, the world is by and large in agreement that emissions need to be reduced through a green energy transition and quickly.

Following an interim reporting phase in September, countries will discuss their respective emissions, relevant targets and just how far off the Paris Agreement benchmarks they are. This process will repeat every five years.

Climate finance

Also taken from the Paris Agreement diaries is the financial commitment to climate change.

Specifically, the stock-take mentioned above points to “the unlocking and redeployment of trillions of dollars to take action against climate change and implement climate-resilient development”.

More than a decade ago, developed countries committed to mobilising $100bn per year by 2020. This likely still isn’t being hit and even so, the required number is likely to be double that by 2030, according to the U.N.

This week, Allianz Trade weighed in, saying that global climate investment will need to reach $3.6 trillion (£2.9 trillion) by 2026.

Furthermore, global banks have come under scrutiny for funding fossil fuel development to the tune of $3.8tn since the Paris Agreement, so it will be interesting to see which leaders take the hardest line on financial institutions and how the market reacts.

The hosts

Reports have swirled this week that COP28 host, the UAE, planned to use climate talks at the summit to make oil deals.

Despite not being hugely surprising, it will definitely be something worth keeping an eye on.

The appointment of this year’s summit president , UAE state-owned oil giant Adnoc’s chief executive Sultan al-Jaber, is something of a contradiction to the wider climate change discussion.

His company aims to nearly double output to five million barrels per day by 2027, a target which has been brought forward three years. This would likely bring oil out of its bearish status and kick on both prices and supply.

Ironically, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is also set to meet tomorrow, COP28’s opening day.

Carbon capture and clean energy capacity

One of the primary focuses for the summit is what methods can be used to lower emissions and impacts while oil and gas remain in use and renewable infrastructure is laid down.

Carbon capture is one such option that has seen scorn and saviour complexes in equal measures from private industry.

According to, BloombergNEF data, governments and corporations have poured over $83bn into projects.

Last year the technology captured just of global emissions.

The summit could be the last chance saloon for carbon capture to prove itself, or risk the big players leaving town.

This has already started happening – oil giant Occidental Petroleum quietly cut its billion-dollar Stratos project and sold the project off last year for a fraction of build price.

Renewable energy for its own part is proving hard to sell investors on at the minute, amidst a US stock exodus that’s reaching nearly 11 months long.

Governments commit to upping capacity for renewables on what seems like a monthly basis, but COP28 could see goals set out once more to help boost power output by 2030.

Absent friends

King Charles, prime minister Rishi Sunak, Vatican leader Pope Francis, and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi are all scheduled to attend the summit.

But as is so often the case when global leaders convene, it’s just as much about who isn’t there; notably US president Joe Biden and Chinese premier Xi Jinping.

Reuters reported that president Biden is focusing on the Israel-Palestine conflict and the upcoming presidential election, while his Chinese counterpart continues his long-running tradition of declining to participate in the summit.

The Chinese premier’s expected absence comes at a particularly poignant time for the Chinese economy, driven by the highly-polluting manufacturing and property industries.

After a year of lagging GDP and output, China is expected, and will need to, make leaps and bounds across its key sectors in 2024, efforts likely driven by an ever-growing need for heavy fuel.