What is more likely: Britain voting to leave the European Union or Donald Trump becoming US President?
Ed Bowsher, deputy editor and senior analyst at Share Radio, says Brexit.
I said in January in City PM that Donald Trump would be the Republican candidate but would not reach the White House, and I still think a Trump victory is very unlikely. Granted, some polls currently put him in the lead, but until now Hillary Clinton hasn’t been able to focus solely on Trump’s weak spots. Most Americans don’t realise that Trump wants to offer big tax cuts to the rich, which won’t play well with his white working-class base, and that he isn’t as wealthy as he claims to be. As for the referendum, Remain is the most likely outcome, but don’t write off Leave just yet. The TV debates could shift voters to the Leave camp, and Brexit supporters are also more likely to vote. What’s more, the government purdah period has now begun, which means there won’t be any more “objective” Treasury reports supporting the Remain case. I reckon there’s a 20 per cent chance that Leave will win, while Trump only has a 5 per cent chance.
Jeremy Beckwith, a senior investment professional and former director of manager research at Morningstar, says Trump.
Paddy Power has the probability of Brexit at 19 per cent and Trump becoming President at 35 per cent, at the time of writing. On Brexit, the Remain campaign has focused on the economic uncertainty caused by leaving, and this seems likely to prevail – the only caveat being turnout, as Leave supporters are far more committed to voting. Donald Trump has consistently surprised the media with his support, and this may well continue. Having won the Republican Party nomination, expect him to turn his campaign towards the rest of the US electorate. Hillary Clinton, however, is also an unpopular candidate, and Trump can win a large number of Bernie Sanders supporters with his similar anti-Establishment appeal. In addition, Clinton has a number of known skeletons in her past (Whitewater, using unsecured email, Libya, Clinton Foundation finances), which Trump is likely to emphasise in his aggressive campaigning style; he may be able to damage her further. Trump is the more likely, but both together would be disastrous for the UK!