What are the big political events coming up in 2024?
From the US presidential race to the London mayoral contests, there’s a lot on the horizon to keep politicos busy in 2024.
We can look ahead to elections around the world – including in India, Taiwan and the European Parliament – and mark our calendars for the UK’s general election.
To ensure you don’t miss a trick, we’ve rounded up a few of the most important events to watch out for throughout the next 12 months – and we’ll talk you through their significance.
Spring Budget
The first big set piece of next year’s political calendar will see Chancellor Jeremy Hunt take centre stage in the House of Commons.
It’s not the main fiscal event, aka the Budget for the year – which is currently delivered at the Autumn Statement, although it has varied – it’s a crucial opportunity for the government.
Hunt will inform Parliament and voters of any financial updates, after changes announced in November, such as cuts to National Insurance Contributions (NIC), take effect in January.
It’s been widely speculated we could see more tax cuts announced, in a retail offer to voters from the Conservative Party ahead of a general election. More on that later…
May local elections
Likely – or almost certainly – to be the final set of local elections before a general election, councils up and down England will go to the polls.
Voters will choose local representatives in places including Rotherham, Bristol, Oxford and Reading, in the second set of elections requiring voter ID to cast a ballot at a polling station.
It follows local elections earlier this year which saw Labour become the party with the most members elected to local government roles for the first time since 2002.
The contests will either set the tone for a general election later in the year, based on how well the respective parties do, or sit alongside them, if the Conservatives opt to go early.
City Hall elections
Alongside the local government races, and also in May 2024, London mayor Sadiq Khan will also go to the polls as he stands for reelection to a record third term at City Hall.
His main opponent is Conservative candidate Susan Hall, a former London Assembly Tory group leader and council leader.
The main election issues are expected to focus around the mayor’s unpopular ultra low emission zone (ULEZ) charging scheme – which defined the Uxbridge by-election in 2023 – as well as key mayoral responsibilities, such as Transport for London and the Met Police.
Stopping the boats
One of the key pledges Rishi Sunak made to voters in early 2023, stopping the boats – or people arriving in the UK in small vessels crossing the Channel – is now a central issue.
The Prime Minister has pledged to fulfil the Rwanda deportation policy, which would see anyone coming to Britain illegally sent to the east African nation.
But it has faced challenges, including the Supreme Court declaring it unlawful, and Tory MPs rowing over their preferred flavour of the legislation to deliver it.
Legal migration in 2023 also reached record levels of 745,000 arrivals, adding further pressure. And as boats increase, thanks to milder summer weather, we can expect the question to reach political prominence once again.
Party conferences
Another annual event in the political calendar, parties gather in early autumn to raise money, set their agenda for the coming year and noisily debate policy positions.
However, one question we have going into 2024, is when or whether they’ll take place. A May election could see them go ahead as normal, potentially under a new government.
While if the government holds off to hold an election in the autumn, the conferences could be called off, depending on timings. That would mean risking missing out on donor cash.
US presidential election
A major theme of 2024 will be the US presidential election. As of now, Joe Biden is expected to be the Democratic candidate for the White House and Donald Trump is likely to stand for the Republicans.
However, both men – incumbent and controversial former president – have to be officially selected by their parties nominating conventions, in early autumn, ahead of the November election day.
US elections are always world events, and 2024 will be no exception, with the fate of Ukraine’s war against Russia, the West’s relations with China, the future of climate change and the environment, and the possibility of a US-UK trade deal all key issues on the table.
UK general election
Finally, we’re taking this one for last, but really it could come at any point throughout 2024.
The UK government must hold a general election before January 2025 at the very latest. Ministers including Sunak have all but ruled out a post-Christmas ballot, making the likeliest dates early summer or autumn.
With Labour riding high in the polls, boasting a fairly consistent 20-point lead over the Conservatives, many commentators predicted we could see a Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer elected before year-end.
Proponents, however, insist much, including the timing of the election, delivery of his five pledges, international events, and perhaps even an economic turnaround, is all to play for.