The UK to crash out of global trading top ten by 2050 and won’t be able to keep up with emerging markets
The UK is set to fall out of the top ten trading nations by 2050, pushed out by the likes of South Korea, Mexico and other emerging markets, according to a new report.
Global merchandise trade is set to quadruple by 2050, down to increased economic integration and new technology.
The UK is set to struggle to compete with rapidly expanding emerging markets, as the global economic “centre of gravity” shifts east.
Oxford Economics found top dogs China, the US, and Germany will retain their lead in merchandise trade in the years to 2050.
China alone is expected to increase its exports over five times, to a whopping $11.7 trillion.
Other emerging markets will benefit from cheaper shipping, new trade deals, and economies connected by technology, the research found.
The UK’s slip down the trading charts is not concerning everyone however.
HSBC economist Mark Berrisford-Smith told City PM: “If you look at the way that Britain's economy has grown over recent years, the service side of the economy is still the vastly dominate force.”
“It’s quite possible that we’ll be export more services than we do goods by 2050. By 2050 we’ll probably still the the world’s 6th largest economy”, he added.
Despite a push by the government to rebalance the economy over recent years, the manufacturing sector is still smaller than it was before the 2008 financial crisis by about 7 per cent.
This long term economic outlook has been labelled as bullish by some economists.
Alistair Winter, chief economist at Daniel Stewart, told City PM: “The report is pretty optimistic. I’m quite gloomy over the next few years.
“We’re in a situation of surplus supply and demand needs to catch up with supply for this forecast to come about,” he added.