Timetable vote threatens to derail PM’s Halloween Brexit pledge
A normally run-of-the-mill vote on parliamentary business today threatens to derail Boris Johnson’s last chance to get Brexit done by 31 October.
A programme motion, setting out the timetable for debating the crucial Withdrawal Agreement bill (WAB), could be rejected by the alliance of opposition MPs and Tory Remainers who argue that it does not allow them sufficient time to scrutinise the new law.
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The 110-page bill was published last night, alongside fact sheets, explanatory notes, and an impact assessment, which fell short of the economic analysis MPs have been calling for.
Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg told MPs last night that all four remaining stages of the bill will be heard in just three days, with the aim of getting it to the Lords by Friday.
Although sources told City PM they were reasonably confident they had the numbers to pass the bill itself, government whips are said to be concerned about losing the timetable.
That would make it all but impossible for Johnson to secure his Halloween Brexit promise.
That in turn could make an election this side of Christmas more likely, although Labour spokespeople have shied away from making any specific commitments beyond saying “no deal must be off the table”.
Last night Ken Clarke – who has said he will vote for the WAB – rubbished the government’s insistence on “dashing for this completely silly and irrelevant date” and called for “some proper time for debate”.
“Two-and-a-bit days of ordinary parliamentary hours is plainly quite insufficient,” he added.
As well as Tory Remainers, the DUP – which are still technically the Conservatives’ confidence and supply partners, although one government source confirmed that arrangement was under review – are said to be against the programme motion.
Former chief whip Mark Harper warned: “Anyone who votes against or tries to amend the programme motion on the Withdrawal Agreement bill tomorrow cannot hide in plain sight. They will be frustrating Brexit and this House’s ability to deliver on the EU referendum result.”
Even if the programme motion is won, Johnson still has to work to guarantee the WAB passes, with a triple threat of amendments including a customs union, second referendum or a measure to block a no deal “trapdoor” if a new trade deal isn’t concluded by the end of the transition period.
The customs union is thought to pose the biggest risk to a government victory, although one Tory MP said current estimates were that it would be seen off by a narrow margin of two or three votes. Ashford MP Damian Green was among those to publicly pull support yesterday.
A government spokesman said any changes that altered the substance of the WAB, designed to enshrine the deal struck by Johnson in Brussels last week, would “call into question ratification”.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet minister in charge of no deal planning, told the Commons that the EU’s “patience will be sorely tested” if MPs seek to amend Brexit deal.
“The EU has been clear, we need to ratify the treaty as agreed,” he said.
Downing Street had wanted a simpler vote on whether MPs back the new Brexit deal, but outgoing speaker John Bercow ruled the proposal out of order since it would replicate a motion already rejected by the House on Saturday.
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Speaking ahead of today’s showdown, Johnson said: “We have negotiated a new deal so that we can leave without disruption and provide a framework for a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We are leaving the European Union but we will always be European.
“I hope Parliament today votes to take back control for itself and the British people and the country can start to focus on the cost of living, the NHS, and conserving our environment. The public doesn’t want any more delays, neither do other European leaders and neither do I. Let’s get Brexit done on 31 October and move on.’