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Tuesday 19 September 2023 8:00 am  |  Updated:  Monday 18 September 2023 6:19 pm

Till sales surge as retailers boosted by sunny September and back to school deals

By: Laura McGuire

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Grocery Prices Reflect Rising Cost Of Living In UK
Fresh cost of living figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday will top investors’ minds in a busy week of data that will shape movements in financial markets (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty Images)

A bout of unusually hot weather in early September helped hike grocery sales at UK supermarkets, with total till sales surging 10.3 per cent in the last four weeks ending 9 September. 

According to data from NIQ, the figure rose up from 7.2 per cent during the wet July and early August, which deterred shoppers and hindered summer BBQ and picnic plans. 

During the sunny four weeks a total of £172m was spent on fresh poultry, with value sales in chicken thighs and drumsticks rising 28 per cent. 

End of summer clearances and back to school promotions also led to an uplift in volume sales for general merchandise items, rising 1.7 per cent as shoppers were offered “one-off bargains” at most of the big supermarkets.

Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ said: “There are some improvements showing in shopper sentiment as inflation continues to slow and there is now a growth in real incomes.”

It is the latest sign that the cost of living pressures that customers face at the till are starting to ease slightly. 

Late last month, figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed that food inflation fell to 11.6 per cent in August, down from 14.3 per cent in July. 

However, chief of the BRC Helen Dickinson warned that Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and its targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities could serve as potential roadblocks to lower inflation. 

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In terms of retailer performance across a 12 week period, NIQ figures show that German discounters Aldi and Lidl are continuing to outperform traditional UK grocers. 

Sales growth at the both groups reached 19.6 per cent and 16.6 per cent respectively, as their low price strategy continues to win with consumers under the cosh. 

M&S, which one in three UK households shopped in during the month, reached sales growth of 11.8 per cent as it was bolstered by the opening of its new food halls across the country. 

‘Big Four’ grocers, Sainsbury’s and Tesco reached sales growth of 9.9 per cent and 8.7 per cent respectively, as their roll-out of loyalty schemes continues to bode well with consumers. 

Table: 12-weekly percentage share of grocery market spend by retailer and value sales percentage change

Watkins added: “Retailers are keen to pass on price cuts as inflation continues to slow. However, they also need to make sure that messages resonate with price conscious consumers, as for some, their discretionary spending power is still limited. 

“We know there is a polarisation of purchasing power with 44 per cent of households impacted only a little or not at all by increased cost of living yet 56 per cent  of households are moderately or severely affected, leaving them budgeting carefully.”

“The good news is that FMCG volumes are starting to improve against the declines of last year so we expect Total Till growth to be around seven per cent  in quarter four  and volume growth at food retailers in December.”

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