The Notebook: Say what you want about Trump, he did show presence of mind
Where the City’s movers and shakers have their say. Today, Michael Martins, partner at Overton Advisory and former US Embassy staffer, takes the pen to talk about the Trump shooting, Ed Miliband’s energy policy, and defence
The US election is now Trump’s to lose
The photos coming out of last weekend’s shooting of Donald Trump are surreal and historical – and Trump’s election campaign could not have asked for a better outcome: a minor wound and a defiant former President demonstrating presence of mind and raw physicality in front of every major news outlet right before the Republican National Convention coronation. Covered by protective Secret Service agents, Trump stood up, moved the forest of protective arms surrounding him, and seized the moment to connect to the crowd and find the cameras, knowing that he would not be given this opportunity again. It was brilliant political theatre and showmanship, and even more remarkable amidst the sheer chaos of the moment.
Importantly, voters will look and see that Trump truly wants the job, even when faced with extreme hostility. Juxtapose that with President Biden’s debate performance and lacklustre campaign so far, and it is no surprise that senior Democrats have spent almost every hour since the failed shooting asking questions like ‘would President Biden have even noticed if his ear had been shot?’
Saturday’s episode will only make senior Democrats and donors’ calls for President Biden to stand down louder and more persistent, even as time runs out to find a successor to face Trump. Most analysts note that support increased for Trump in crucial swing states after the shooting and Republican voters will become more energised in a way that Democrats can only hope Biden will be for the final Presidential debate on 10 September.
The shooting has also complicated Biden’s campaign at an incredibly difficult and delicate moment. Biden has been focused on framing Trump as an “enemy of democracy” to unify his rebellious Democratic party and draw a line under his disastrous debate performance. He will struggle to land those attacks now that Trump himself has just survived a very real-life threat to the democratic process.
This election is, to quote Republican pollster Frank Luntz, now Trump’s to lose.
Miliband’s ministers should heed their own advice
Energy secretary Ed Miliband MP’s core policy message is simple: he does not like North Sea energy. Miliband handpicked his team to implement this vision, but his new cadre seems to have forgotten that many of the potential workers in “climate compatible” industries do not live near places earmarked for Labour intervention, while many of their employers now face existential questions due to Miliband’s own policy announcements. Hopefully Miliband “moves away from the either/or trap when discussing energy policy” to quote Chris Stark, his new head of DESNZ Mission Control.
Defence procurement needs an upgrade
Defence scale-ups dream of cracking the US procurement market. Billion-dollar Pentagon contract bids take prime position in their pitch decks, but some smarter scale-ups focus on entering the US indirectly via the UK’s NATO and Five Eyes membership. The Ministry of Defence’s procurement rules have not been updated since 2011, however, and no longer reflect the UK’s threat landscape or recent technological advancement. Although PM Starmer has promised a review, for Ukrainian soldiers, planners thinking about China and diplomats quelling tensions in the Middle East, that is not fast enough.
I agree with Tony Blair: Technology is better than bans
You do have to love Tony Blair’s ability to always make it about himself – I’m surprised he hasn’t come out to say he too was almost shot this weekend. But Blair did take the opportunity to set out his policy stall shortly after Starmer’s electoral victory with his solution of choice: technology! NHS waitlists? AI! Fixing potholes? ChatGPT! As companies like Schneider Electric have pointed out, incentivising innovation in established technologies like energy efficiency could produce much-sought-after economic growth, at a fraction of the price of turning the countryside into a wind farm.
The Bear: A delicious watch and maybe a cookbook for the new small business minister
I spent much of the weekend bingeing the third series of The Bear, my current favourite show. The show’s protagonist, a Michelin starred chef turned entrepreneur, struggles to build out his business vision amidst a deluge of paperwork, high inflation and late payments. Most business owners will struggle not to identify with The Bear, but the many politicians reading this should also watch the show, especially new small business minister Gareth Thomas. To be our SME champion, Thomas must focus on issues that affect the UK’s small businesses. So, Gareth, loyal City PM reader we know you are, maybe your first ministerial campaign should be to find three quick wins for small businesses, one from each series of The Bear? Just a thought, chef.