The Notebook: Investors should look to Ukraine
European capital is flowing into Ukraine’s recovery — and early investors willing to navigate the risks stand to reap the rewards, says Michael Martins
I was in Brussels a little over a week ago for the European and Ukrainian business summit, supporting clients exploring investment opportunities in Ukraine. I frankly did not know what to expect because I hadn’t been to Brussels or Ukraine since before the lockdowns or war. I was, and remain, still a bit gobsmacked.
The level of enthusiasm and willingness for organisations to spend and invest in Ukraine (albeit only in the western regions, as far as I could tell) was not something I’ve encountered in a long time. Much of the immediate focus is on the western regions, but the broader message was clear: the private sector and European institutions alike are preparing for a near-term peace, regardless of who is in the White House.
Conversations with businesses and officials revealed two shared assumptions: peace is achievable within a few years, and Ukraine’s stability and economy are now strategic priorities for its nearby European neighbours.
In commercial terms, it also looked to me like the spigots were open. The EU has committed nearly €20bn to funding projects in Ukraine. That injection of capital is offsetting some of the geopolitical risks and drawing in firms that would normally sit on the sidelines.
President Trump’s pivot towards a ceasefire — whatever one makes of it politically — has acted as a market signal. For many investors, this is a revamped Marshall Plan: European-led, private-sector powered and accelerated by geopolitical urgency.
There is realism among the serious players. No one expects a smooth process. Reconstruction will be messy, contested and politically sensitive. But that is precisely why the opportunities are material. Infrastructure, energy, logistics and defence-adjacent sectors are attracting serious attention. Investors who move early — and are prepared for the volatility — stand to profit most.
Ukraine’s future is no longer a theoretical debate about European security. It is becoming one of the most commercially significant reconstruction efforts of the 21st century. The only question is who has the nerve to chase it.
LinkedIn should have sad emojis
LinkedIn’s rise as a political platform has a serious flaw: its reaction emojis only allow applause.
Politicians increasingly use it to soft-launch ideas, knowing journalists are less likely to notice — and users can only react positively. There’s no “sad” or “thumbs down” button, just claps and hearts. Very few are brave enough to sound off in the comments section where their boss might see.
If LinkedIn continues to host serious political debate, it needs more than curated applause options. Otherwise, it risks becoming a vapid echo chamber in a navy suit.
Defence spending headlines mean little if procurement criteria exclude the best and brightest
The rise in defence spending by European countries and the EU is welcome amid persistent and heightened conflict. I remain sceptical, however, that Europe can truly go it alone without the US because the EU is systematically sidelining precisely the companies that are moving fastest on the modern battlefield. Headline increases mean little if EU Defence Fund procurement remains burdened by onerous criteria. Most funds require firms to show over €1m turnover over three years — effectively excluding most Ukrainian drone, counter-drone and innovation firms that are reshaping warfare.
Bypassing airport security queues changed my life
I’m a slightly nervous flyer and airports are stressful environments for me. I recently opted to do Stansted’s fast track security, and I don’t think I’ll ever be able to visit an airport without paying for this feature again. For less than the price of a pint in zone 1, I bypassed the anxiety of the miles-long queue and the stress of having to unpack and repack, undress and redress in front of hundreds of equally tense strangers while debating whether to jog or sprint to the gate. 10/10 would recommend.
Hannah Crosbie is my favourite curator on Instagram
Crosbie, the Guardian’s wine critic, is rapidly establishing herself as a modern, sharper successor to Anthony Bourdain — if Bourdain had lived to master Instagram. She deftly blends the realities of new and legacy media, pitching herself as equal parts wine critic, meme lord, and London venue oracle – and I am entirely here for it.
Her venue reviews, delivered with deadpan wit, alongside astute social commentary and top-tier memes, have made her essential viewing. Everyone should follow her to discover where to eat and drink in London (although she has a distinct eastward bias). My only concern is that her growing cult of London gourmets will drive up prices and force my favourite venues to introduce reservation systems demanding credit card details.
Michael Martins is founder of Overton Advisory and former political and economic specialist at US embassy London