The Notebook: Anti-Tory voters will make him PM, but Starmer needs more to make him a leader
Where the City’s movers and shakers have their say. Today, Lee Cain, former Downing Street communications director and founder of strategic advisory firm Charlesbye, writes about Keir Starmer, the importance of public opinion, and preparing for nuclear disaster.
Starmer’s enthusiasm deficit
Keir Starmer has an enthusiasm problem.
This probably seems an odd statement considering he is set to lead his party to the biggest parliamentary majority since Tony Blair. However, underneath the record party poll lead lies a serious ‘enthusiasm deficit’ for the Labour leader.
As anyone who has sat in focus groups this year will tell you, the electorate has one goal at the next election: to vote the Conservatives out. It is hard to understate the country’s desire for change. People are thoroughly fed up with the Tories and are set to abandon them en masse.
This anti-Tory sentiment means they face a Carthaginian defeat with Labour all but certain to record a huge landslide. However, it would be a mistake to conclude that this means people are excited about the leader of the government-in-waiting.
The data shows the public has reservations as to whether Sir Keir is the person who can deliver the change they desire, with only 28 per cent of voters having a positive view and 32 per cent still undecided. While this uncertainty is unlikely to have any serious impact on the electoral result, it does mean the Labour leader will be judged quickly and harshly as Prime Minister.
The first 100 days – always a critical time for a new administration – will be vital to Starmer’s political survival. He started that process last week with his six priorities. But Sir Keir needs to do much more – he must provide the country with a powerful moral story that identifies the public’s concerns, outline how his party will provide the change required and quickly show delivery. If he fails, the ‘enthusiasm deficit’ will be permanent and it is unlikely he will ever regain a strong political position.
A similar challenge was presented to Rishi Sunak – who also entered Downing Street with high ‘undecideds’ – but an incoherent policy platform and poor narrative saw the public quickly lose faith. He now boasts an even worse approval rating than Liz Truss.
As PM, Starmer too won’t get a second chance to make a good first impression.
A shot in the arm
In the last few months we’ve seen an increase in outbreaks of whooping cough and measles, while recent polling shows trust in vaccinations has plummeted by 20 per cent.
The success of the Covid jab should have silenced the anti-vax brigade but sadly we’ve seen the opposite – in part because the government has abandoned the field.
Instead of using government communications for endless political pabulum, it is time to dust off the Downing Street press conference suite and get the band back together. The PM should once again be flanked by Professor Sir Chris Witty and Patrick Vallance (and backed by a serious strategic communications campaign) to give vaccination rates the shot in the arm they so badly need.
Shaping opinion
Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed.
Abraham Lincoln
Abraham Lincoln was a master at shaping public opinion – and, as the quote shows, understood its importance. Yet it surprises me how few politicians and business leaders have adopted a similar philosophy.
Earlier this year, Charlesbye published , the largest ever single study of the UK’s media habits, to help businesses, politicians and campaign groups communicate effectively with their audience. In the past, obtaining coverage in the press would be enough to create positive reputations. However in today’s fragmented media landscape, organisations need to be able to achieve multi-platform coverage – backed by data-driven messaging – if they are to stay ahead of the competition.
Just like how political parties frame the issues during elections, businesses should be putting data-driven public opinion research at the heart of their communication strategies – understanding what to say, how to say it and who to say it to. In an age where governments are increasingly driven by public opinion, this is also the most effective way to generate political change.
The way people engage with news has changed. It’s time for politicians, businesses and campaign groups to change their approach too.
Breaking the class ceiling
It pays to be privileged in Britain. Elite occupations such as medicine, law and the media are dominated by the privately educated, despite only seven per cent of the country attending fee-paying schools.
Even those who manage to break through this class ceiling find themselves falling behind their privileged peers due to the invisible barriers that stop them from progressing, such as someone’s accent, connections and school tie. But these rigid inequalities are holding Britain back.
Having access to a wider talent pool is a significant advantage to organisations, especially when it is accompanied by a wider range of backgrounds, perspectives and experiences. Corporates need to do more to tackle these outdated prejudices – and not just for moral reasons. There is a strong business case for overcoming class inequality too.
What I’ve been reading
Nuclear War: A Scenario, Annie Jacobsen
What would you do if the four minute warning sounded right now?
The grim realities of nuclear war are difficult for any of us to really contemplate but it was something I was forced to confront shortly after starting as Downing Street’s director of communications.
It began with a surprise knock on my office door and within minutes I was handed a top security pass and whisked into a labyrinth of dark, damp tunnels deep under Whitehall. Passing by the rows of dingy bunk beds and a tiny PM bedroom with a single Ikea wardrobe and cabinet, I was taken to a specially designed media facility with one purpose – to tell any survivors how to stay alive.
This was the last time I had really considered the apocalyptic four minute warning question until reading Annie Jacobsen’s terrifying new book Nuclear War: A Scenario. In a horrific minute-by-minute overview, Jacobsen brings to life the insane and impossible pressures heaped on decision-makers – and the doomsday ending for humanity. Maybe we all need to learn to start worrying about the bomb.