The inbox from hell? Headaches and unpredictability await Starmer in 2025
New year, new Keir? Jessica Frank-Keyes looks at the pitfalls, rivals and online trolls threatening to ruin the PM’s 2025
For politicians, the dawn of a New Year can represent the opportunity for a fresh start, while avoiding that dreaded Westminster word ‘reset’. But for Keir Starmer in particular, looking ahead to the next 12 months may feel like more of a recurring nightmare than the turning of a fresh page.
Following a landslide election win in July that secured the party’s biggest majority since 1997, the Labour leader has endured a rocky start to his administration, not aided by a series of unforced stumbles on winter fuel, inheritance tax and freebie-gate.
From personal poll ratings tumbling – an exclusive survey for City PM by Freshwater Strategies this week found the Prime Minster had lower approval ratings (-36) in the UK than President-elect Donald Trump (-34) – to a pervading sense of economic gloom, it’s a far cry from what voters might expect this soon on from a so-called ‘change’ election.
When it comes to policy, Starmer’s in-tray is awash with the thorniest of issues. YouGov’s tracker of the public’s key concerns consistently places the economy, immigration and health in top spots, and delivery in these areas will be essential to avoiding voters’ buyers remorse.
Improving living standards – No10’s new framing of the PM’s economic growth mission – and cutting NHS waiting lists are part of Starmer’s five ‘mission’ statements for his government.
Instead of making a specific pledge on immigration, he chose to name ‘secure borders’ in the party’s manifesto as one of the “strong foundations” of the Britain he now leads; leaving Starmer open to accusations of failing to own the issue.
But each represents a complex tangle of hard economic realities, public institutions and legalities and varying social attitudes. While worthwhile goals, none will be simple to achieve – in one parliament, let alone in 2025. Just look at the resounding thud with which social care reform was chucked into the long grass.
Will demonstrating a modicum of progress be enough to present a credible narrative of improvement to Brits’ lives? Or will ‘government by pledge card’ prove better left in the 90s?
The dry work of policy creation and state overhaul, however difficult, is still seen as the PM’s natural home; his comfort zone as a former reforming Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), and as a leader who cites his record on “changing the Labour Party”.
What may really haunt the PM’s waking (and sleeping) hours are the self-confessed opponents of his national project who haven’t been shy in making their presence felt.
From the X-based attacks of Tesla owner and Donald Trump adviser Elon Musk, to the rise in popularity of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, key tests await following the presidential inauguration and the approach of the May local elections, seen as an opportunity by Reform.
Further headaches may await should the Tories’ regicidal tendencies rear their head again. Courtly intrigue continues to surround Badenoch’s post as opposition leader, with reports of no shortage of wannabe replacements biding their time, even within her own shadow cabinet.
But what may really trip Starmer up is the age-old foe of PMs past: ‘Events, dear boy, events.”
It’s always worth remembering the predictions of a decade or more in power prompted by Boris Johnson’s 80-seat majority at the 2019 election – before a bat flapped its wings in China and changed the world just weeks later.
As centrist governments from Canada to France and Germany face headwinds, could the PM – who has shown himself to be a fan of foreign trips – become a lonelier figure on the world stage?
While in an increasingly unpredictable world, Trump’s imminent return to the White House – and his plans, or the consequences, for tariffs, Ukraine, and global security, is just one volatile aspect among many that Team Starmer may find it impossible to plan for.
Buckle up, as they say.