Thames Water to avoid state bailout, the FTSE 100 at 7900 and an ITV bid: my predictions for UK plc in 2025
Predictions may generally be a mug’s game, but looking back at my forecasts for the business world in 2024, I seem to have fared better than usual.
Klarna, the buy now pay later giant, opted for a New York listing; Dame Alison Rose made a comeback in a senior private equity role; Unilever announced that it would demerge a big chunk of its food operations; and attempts to secure a new financial redistribution deal for English football stalled, if not collapsed.
All of them were among my predictions for the year; I would prefer to forget the rest (including the timing of the general election and the likely listing location of Shein).
Here, then, are my top ten forecasts for stories that will affect British business in 2025.
FTSE 100 to struggle
The UK’s main share indices are in for a tough year, with the more domestically focused FTSE-250 faring particularly poorly as Britain only narrowly avoids slipping into recession. The FTSE-100 will face a larger-than-usual churn of its constituents as a stream of takeover bids from US-based companies continues to flow across the Atlantic, while geopolitical instability will continue to hamper its progress. Among the FTSE-350 targets of bid approaches in 2025 will be Smith & Nephew, Tate & Lyle and Deliveroo. Expect the FTSE-100 to end the year at around 7900 points.
Telegraph sale
After nearly two years in limbo, The Daily Telegraph and its Sunday sister title will be sold to a vehicle led by Dovid Efune, the New York Sun publisher. Efune will become chief executive of the UK titles, although he will not be their outright majority owner. The deal will take until the spring to close, following further government scrutiny. Meanwhile, the Observer’s new owner, Tortoise Media, will need to raise further funds from investors including the Scott Trust, the owner of The Guardian, by the autumn.
British Steel and Thames Water
British Steel and Thames Water, the two biggest industrial headaches confronting Sir Keir Starmer’s administration, will both avoid nationalisation, but will each require varying forms of government support in order to do so. In the case of the Chinese-owned steelmaker, a substantial state grant will be signed off in March, although critics will argue that it will do little to secure the company’s long-term future. Meanwhile, Thames Water will agree an equity-raise backed by France’s Suez to keep it in private ownership.
Bitcoin rally
The price of Bitcoin will prolong its recent Donald Trump-fuelled surge, touching $130,000 not long after the president’s second inauguration and prompting a wider frenzy of dealmaking among cryptocurrency financiers. Among the recipients of compelling takeover offers in the sector will be Copper, chaired by Lord Hammond, which will be absorbed in a transatlantic deal which reflects the growing importance of multidisciplinary players in a sector whose growth has plenty of untapped potential.
Shein listing
After gaining clearance from the Financial Conduct Authority, Shein, the Chinese-founded online fashion giant, will list on the London Stock Exchange. The flotation, which will take place late in the second quarter of the year, will see it valued at more than £50bn, making it one of the City’s largest-ever listings by valuation. Protests outside the LSE headquarters will mar the opening day of trading. Shein’s arrival in London won’t be enough, though, to mask structural failings elsewhere in the market, with Pearson also electing to list its shares in the US during the year.
Tottenham Hotspur deal
The influx of private capital into global sports leagues and franchises will continue unabated, with a string of deals involving some of the world’s biggest teams. I also expect 2025 to be the year that Tottenham Hotspur FC finally changes hands after years of speculation that Joe Lewis (now his family trust) is ready to offload it. London rivals Chelsea will also see their off-field impasse resolved when Behdad Eghbali buys the stake currently owned by Todd Boehly.
Boardroom changes
It will be adieu to a string of big boardroom names this year, with Erik Engstrom, chief executive of RELX, the HSBC chairman Sir (?) Mark Tucker and London Stock Exchange chair Don Robert all paving the way for their successors. (Note that I have erroneously made this prediction about Engstrom in previous years.) Newly appointed Asda chair Allan Leighton will go overseas to appoint a new chief executive for the supermarket chain, while there will be a number of surprise executive departures, including at another of the big UK food retailers.
ITV bid
Just over 20 years after it was created and after a string of aborted attempts, ITV plc will finally succumb to a takeover bid. In fact, the commercial broadcaster will become the subject of a bidding war involving both rival media companies and private equity firms. The eventual outcome will be a break-up involving both, and don’t be surprised to see RedBird Capital, the owner of All3Media, figuring prominently in the final mix of bidders.
Musk donates to Reform
Contrary to Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch’s assertions this month, Elon Musk, the owner of X, will make a sizeable donation to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. It won’t initially be on the scale of the rumoured $100m cheque he was said to be ready to write, but it will qualify as the single-biggest donation ever made to a political party other than Labour or the Tories. Nick Candy, Reform’s treasurer, will end 2025 having raised in excess of £50m during the calendar year – itself a record sum.
Tulip’s troubles
Tulip Siddiq, the City minister, will not see out the year in her current berth. That fact will not be connected to the current controversy over a bribery probe into a nuclear power deal in her native Bangladesh. Siddiq, who has denied all the allegations, will be moved in another reshuffle overseen by Sir Keir Starmer towards the middle of the year, with her role as economic secretary to the Treasury instead assumed by current pensions minister Emma Reynolds.