Super Saint-Andre can lead France to trophy
SPORT TRADER DAVID WILD AND BEN CLEMINSON BRING YOU THE BEST SIX NATIONS AND PREMIER LEAGUE BETS
FROM TOMORROW
WHO is under the most pressure ahead of this year’s Six Nations? Is it Stuart Lancaster, England’s interim coach who, should he achieve anything less than a Grand Slam, will probably be out of a job?
Or is his opposite number at France, Philippe Saint-Andre, who inherited a talented but undisciplined group of players that, against the odds, progressed to the World Cup final? Or perhaps Wales captain Sam Warburton, who will be aiming to deliver the trophy to a hopeful nation of rugby fanatics while simultaneously staking a claim to be the next captain of the British and Irish Lions?
The fallout from the World Cup has meant more than the usual level of anticipation for the upcoming tournament but reshuffled squads at the start of a new four-year cycle also makes it difficult to predict the outcome. England, France, Wales and Ireland are all capable of beating each other and so Coral’s 8/11 for no Grand Slam winner appeals.
While a new crop of promising players – including one-cap captain Chris Robshaw – heralds a bright future for England, a long list of unknowns and injuries to key experienced players like Toby Flood suggests they cannot retain their title. The selections will be unavoidably experimental when consistency is required.
There are unknowns too for France but they have more in their favour and are the outright tip at 13/8 with Coral. As a former international captain, and with over a decade of coaching experience, Saint-Andre is well-known and well-respected among the players and his ability to galvanise his squad should not be underestimated. When they lost to New Zealand by a point in the World Cup final, Les Bleus showed that they are a serious force when they put their collective mind to it and the leadership proffered by the new coach alongside captain and IRB Player of the Year Thierry Dusautoir will ensure that is the case.
France’s strongest challengers are considered to be Wales, Coral making them 11/4 second favourites. However, I feel there is too much optimism for Warren Gatland’s men and advise selling their outright spread at 28 with Sporting Index. A profit would be made if they finish third or lower.
Wales will be forced to field a weakened tight five in a tricky opener in Dublin – Matthew Rees joining Gethin Jenkins, Alun Wyn-Jones and Luke Charteris on the injury list – while other experienced players such as Jamie Roberts are doubts. There is the option to trade out if the Red Dragons do lose to the Irish, but they may also struggle in important games at Twickenham and against France at the Millennium Stadium.
POINTERS…
France at 13/8 with Coral
No Grand Slam winner at 8/11 Coral
Sell Wales’ outright tournament index at 28 with Sporting Index
SCOTLAND vs ENGLAND
TOMORROW – 5.00PM BBC ONE
Welcoming the Auld Enemy to Murrayfield on a freezing cold day must be the perfect way for a Scotsman to get his Six Nations campaign underway. ‘Welcome’ is not quite the right word though, because Andy Robinson’s side have a score to settle.
The last time England paid a visit to the home of Scottish rugby the match was tied 15-15, when missed chances saw the hosts eventually become the not-so-proud owners of the wooden spoon. Exactly a year later, Scotland came close to grabbing an elusive win at Twickenham, a Jonny Wilkinson penalty eventually securing the hosts’ victory by 22-16. In the Pool B match at the Rugby World Cup a win was again beyond Scotland but this time the gap was even closer – just four points. The Scots might think they’re due one and will be baying for blood against England’s new boys.
However, for all the intent, motivation and dogged determination, there still lies a problem for the Scots. In 24 matches under Robinson, they have scored just 20 tries at an average of 0.8 a game, while conceding 38.
Without the reliability of retired kicker Chris Paterson to fall back on, it’s difficult to see how Scotland will find enough points to topple a physically stronger and fitter England. I’m confident enough to back England with a three-point handicap at 10/11 with Coral, but if you prefer to bet on the win market, it makes sense to take the 4/6 with Coral, who are offering a 20 per cent bonus if the team you back wins by more than 13 points this weekend.
We can expect this to be close and low scoring – the last three Calcutta Cup clashes at Murrayfield have averaged just 28 points, with the Scots winning by six in both 2006 and 2008. Spread bettors should sell points at 34 with Sporting Index while Bodog’s 20/1 for a half-time draw/England victory is tempting.
POINTERS…
England (-3) at 10/11 with Coral
HT Draw/ FT England at 20/1 with Bodog
Sell total match points at 34 with Sporting Index
CHELSEA vs MANCHESTER UNITED
SUNDAY – 4.00PM SKY SPORTS 1
AS a man who checks his watch every five seconds, Sir Alex Ferguson won’t need telling that it’s squeaky bum time in the Premier League. Having allowed Manchester United to draw level at the top of the table, Roberto Mancini will certainly be squirming in his seat at the Etihad Stadium.
Manchester City’s defeat at Everton has handed the initiative back to their local rivals and United will be looking to capitalise on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.
In recent seasons backing away wins on this ground has been a pretty unrewarding tactic, but the aura of invincibility that surrounded the Bridge has given way to an air of opportunity for visiting teams.
This season, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa have plundered nine points between them from this part of west London. And Liverpool returned to secure a 2-0 Carling Cup win just over a week after their league triumph.
Although United lost at Anfield in the FA Cup last weekend, they have the division’s outstanding away record, with eight wins and a single loss from their 11 road trips, and are the recommended selection at a best price 19/10 with Coral.
Chelsea are dismissed at 8/5 having won just two of their last eight league matches and their vulnerability was there for all to see in the 1-1 draw with Swansea on Tuesday night. The Blues have been unfamiliarly frail at the back – hence the signing of Gary Cahill, who could make his debut with Ashley Cole suspended. They have already conceded more home goals this term than in total for each of the previous nine completed seasons.
United won the reverse fixture 3-1 in September and I’m expecting goals again. Spread bettors are encouraged to buy goals at 2.7 with Sporting Index as there have been an average of 3.64 in Chelsea’s 11 home league fixtures.
POINTERS…
Man United at 19/10 with Coral
Buy goals at 2.7 with Sporting Index