Samba Boys have the edge against Holland
HOLLAND vs BRAZIL
TODAY – 3.00PM ITV1
BRAZIL have been unfamiliarly clinical so far in this tournament. They just did enough to beat North Korea, before impressing against Ivory Coast in the second group game. The Portugal match was a non-event, but Dunga’s side showed their true mettle against Chile on Monday night. That was their best performance so far and the reason why they are now a best-priced 5/2 with William Hill and Paddy Power to lift the trophy.
This is not a typical Brazilian side, but it is fair to say that they will not be playing against a typical Dutch side this afternoon. Holland have won all four games during this competition, matching their best ever run at a World Cup finals. They haven’t ripped any teams apart as yet and it’s unlikely that they will return to the halcyon days of Total Football against the Samba Boys. These are two well-disciplined sides that are difficult to break down and one moment of magic could be enough to win it.
It looks a very open year and whoever wins this game will feel confident of defeating either Uruguay or Ghana to reach the final. Brazil are starting to hit form at the right time and they are worth backing at 19/20 with William Hill and Paddy Power to win the match in 90 minutes. Holland will make it difficult for them and I’ve been impressed with their backline, but Luis Fabiano, Kaka and the rejuvenated Robinho should have enough to be able to pierce them at some stage.
These sides haven’t met since 1999, but interestingly four of the last five contests have been draws. This could go the distance, just like their semi-final in 1998 which Brazil eventually won 4-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw. However, I can see this being Bert Van Marwijk’s side’s first defeat in 23 matches. They’ve been on a tremendous run, but not as good as the Brazilians who have only lost one of their last 30 games.
I have been advising selling goals with Sporting Index in the majority of matches at this World Cup and I see no reason in changing that philosophy for this game. Both managers are cautious and will be unwilling to throw too many players forward at an early stage. Brazil just have slightly more quality, though, so I’ll also be backing them to sneak a 1-0 win at 6/1 on Betdaq.
POINTERS…
Brazil to win at 19/20 with Hills and Paddy Power
Brazil to win 1-0 at 6/1 on Betdaq
Sell total goals at 2.3 with Sporting Index
ARGENTINA vs GERMANY
TOMORROW – 3.00PM BBC 1
ARGENTINA must feel like they’ve been here before. In 2006 they defeated Mexico in the second round, only to lose on penalties against the Germans in the quarter-final. They have been very impressive under the stewardship of Diego Maradona this time around and their team spirit is plain for all to see. Gonzalo Higuain, Carlos Tevez and Lionel Messi have all played magnificently, despite the latter failing to score a goal as yet.
Joachim Low’s young side easily dispatched England last time and they have shown that they are a team going places. Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mesut Ozil have stood out on the creative side, while Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller have scored seven goals between them. Similarly to Argentina, their main strength is their attackers, which means that this game could be quite open.
Both sides play a decent passing game and it’s unlikely that Germany will adopt a defensive strategy similar to the one Greece used when playing Maradona’s side. Yes, they will try to nullify the threat of Messi, which almost every country has done to date, but their backline is far from quick. Per Mertesacker always looks unsure and it’s quite surprising that they’ve only conceded two goals so far at this tournament.
I can see this game being close but I think La Albiceleste just have the edge and I’ll be backing them at 11/8 with William Hill. Both defences have their weaknesses so I can see both conceding. I will therefore have a small bet on the 2-1 Argentina win at 9/1 on Betdaq.
POINTERS…
Argentina to win at 11/8 with William Hill
Argentina to win 2-1 at 9/1 on Betdaq
Buy total goals at 2.6 with Sporting Index