Resurgent Rafa to storm in to French final
FOR two players who both concede they are not at the top of their game, reaching the semi-final of the French Open is quite an achievement. Top seed Rafael Nadal will take on Andy Murray, seeded fourth, at Roland Garros today for a place in Sunday’s final and, despite his protestations that he is not playing well enough to win the tournament, everything suggests the Spaniard will pass this test with ease.
Firstly, Nadal’s comments were made not so long after towering American John Isner took him to five sets in the first round. On the evidence from his last match against Robin Soderling – the only man to have ever beaten Nadal at the French Open – Rafa is certainly close to his best, if not quite there. He destroyed Soderling with the same attributes that have seen him claim the scalps of so many others under Parisian skies – a dependable serve, speed and a fearsome forehand. It should also be noted that Nadal has not dropped a set since his tournament opener.
In contrast, Andy Murray made hard work of it against his last two opponents Viktor Troicki and Juan Ignacio Chela. The Scot showed outstanding tenacity to beat Troicki after losing the first two sets, while the straight-sets result in the quarters does not tell the full story. Murray could easily have lost the opening set and he struggled to serve out the second.
The bookies give us a clue too. Paddy Power are a best priced 2/11 for a Nadal victory over Murray. That’s too short for me, but I do like the look of Nadal to win in three sets at evens with William Hill.
Although we have come to expect stamina-sapping epics between these opponents, Nadal holds a significant upper hand in head-to-heads, which he leads by 10 wins to four. Their semi-final meeting at Monte Carlo earlier this season is the only time Nadal has dropped a set against the Scot in three matches on clay, while Murray has won only two sets in the pair’s five meetings at the majors.
There is also Murray’s ankle injury to consider. He will expect to move around the court more against a manipulator like Nadal. Furthermore, Murray’s tendency to berate himself may also work against him. A sniff of frustration in his opponent will be something that the experienced Nadal will feed off.
As our argument for a Nadal rout stacks up, it seems logical to sell total games at 34.25 with Sporting Index. In his seven matches against top-five seeds at Roland Garros, only three have gone longer than 31 games.
Keeping in mind the world number one’s astounding 43-1 Roland Garros record, it is worth backing him to win the tournament now at 7/5 on Betdaq. True, likely finalist and tournament favourite Novak Djokovic is playing better than ever, but we should have a fair idea of Rafa’s true form this evening, giving us the option to lay off for a guaranteed profit if he beats Murray convincingly. Just don’t be surprised if Rafa goes the distance to equal Bjorn Borg’s record of six French Open titles.
POINTERS…
Nadal to win in three sets at evens with William Hill
Sell total games at 34.25 with Sporting Index
Nadal to win French Open at 7/5 on Betdaq