Red Dragons have edge in Twickenham thriller
ENGLAND vs WALES
TOMORROW – 4.00PM BBC ONE
THIS is the one many of us have been waiting for. Wales at Twickenham always gets the blood flowing, but there seems to be more at stake this year.
It’s the first real test for Stuart Lancaster’s new-look England. The interim coach can be pleased to have secured two wins from two against defensive teams in tricky conditions, but no one can pretend the rugby has been spectacular. Wales, aside from winning the Triple Crown and staying on course for a Grand Slam, have the opportunity to prove that they are the real deal — that they can comfortably carry the tag of favourites and improve on their record of just two wins in 24 years at HQ.
The Red Dragons are playing some of the most thrilling rugby of any Northern Hemisphere side and it is proving somewhat effective, as their run to the World Cup semi-finals and current Six Nations form shows. In their first two matches, they have scored 50 points and six tries. It’s no wonder the bookies make them odds-on to beat an England side that has shown little more than promise so far.
Strangely, favouritism is also the visitors’ biggest burden. For all the praise heaped on coach Warren Gatland, closer scrutiny of results reveals that there is still a way to go. In their last nine games Wales have not beaten any team ranked higher by the IRB.
The venue is a real leveller. Wales would be a cast-iron certainty in front of 75,000 in full voice at the Millennium Stadium, but that’s not so at Twickenham. England’s young players will get a massive boost playing here together for the first time and, furthermore, Lancaster has been brave enough to tinker with the side this time, offering starts to scrum-half Lee Dickson, number eight Ben Morgan and returning centre Manu Tuilagi.
Even with these improvements, in almost every position Wales have more talented and experienced players; from the Lions prop duo of Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones to Mike Phillips — arguably the best scrum-half in the world at the moment — and Jamie Roberts in the centre. These players won’t be fazed by the crowd. Wales may struggle to overcome their three-point handicap, but Coral’s 4/6 for an outright win is a good price. If they win by 13 points, Coral will even pay a 20% bonus.
It’s going to be mild, with low winds and glimpses of sun, conditions that should give both sides a chance to play some attractive, attacking rugby. The last five meetings at Twickenham have averaged 52 points, with a lowest score of 42, so it’s worth buying total points at that mark with Sporting Index.
POINTERS…
Wales at 4/6 with Coral
Buy points at 42 with Sporting Index
SCOTLAND vs FRANCE
SUNDAY – 3.00PM BBC TWO
DOGGEDNESS is a trait that Scotland have exhibited in their two Championship games so far this year, but they have never really looked in danger of getting a result. I don’t suppose for a second that they will find one against France on Sunday.
Andy Robinson’s men did well to avoid having their behinds handed to them on a plate at the Millennium Stadium a fortnight ago, when they cut short a period of Welsh dominance early in the second half. Scotland were even unlucky to have a legitimate try from 19-year-old Stuart Hogg disallowed. Still, they ended up losing by 14 points. Against England, they defended well but couldn’t manage more than two successful penalty kicks.
France at their best can be more threatening in attack than the Welsh and as solid in defence as the English. Les Bleus looked very impressive in their opener against Italy, winning by an 18-point margin and scoring four tries, despite the fact that Italy played fairly well. How will the Scots even set out to win this match?
Robinson has made significant changes in the back line as a result of injury to Max Evans and I can only see this further unsettling a squad that has previously expressed concern about inconsistent selection. Conversely, France appear as comfortable as ever with Philippe Saint-Andre at the helm.
A six point start doesn’t seem quite generous enough for the Scots who have beaten France just once in 13 matches in the new millennium. Scotland’s narrowest margin of defeat in these matches was seven points, in 2005. France must be backed on the handicap at 10/11 with Coral and I also like the look of a halftime/fulltime double at 4/5 with Bet Butler.
Scotland did at least break their run of four matches without a try in their last game, and could well give their fans a touchdown to cheer this time. The French backs were breaking lines left, right and centre against Italy and I’d expect them to do it again. Buy total tries at 3.9 with Sporting Index.
POINTERS…
France (-6) at 10/11 with Coral
France HT/FT at 4/5 with Bet Butler
Buy total tries at 3.9 with Sporting Index
IRELAND vs ITALY
TOMORROW – 1.30PM BBC ONE
WHILE the Italians may not expect to return home from their trip to Lansdowne Road with a first victory over the Irish since 1997, they certainly have the ability to beat the handicap. The Azzurri came close to overcoming England in Rome last time and will have taken a lot of confidence from that performance, but also from the way they played at the Stade de France a week earlier.
The pack is the key. If Ireland are allowed to win ball easily at the breakdown and distribute to lightning-quick wingers Tommy Bowe and Andrew Trimble, they will run away with it. If, however, the Italian forwards are allowed to flaunt their physicality, it will frustrate the Boys in Green and the scores will be kept close.
Ireland won by a margin of 30 points when the teams met in New Zealand last October, but in the few matches under new coach Jacques Brunel, the visitors seem to have grown into a more rounded side and will be unlikely to capitulate so easily tomorrow. Ireland are also under a little pressure to end a three-match losing streak at the Aviva Stadium so are unlikely to attack at all costs.
Only once in the past four meetings between the sides in Ireland, including a meeting in Belfast in 2007, have the hosts won by more than 16 points, so backing Italy (+16) at 10/11 with Blue Square is recommended. Bowe is in fantastic form and he scored one and made a try for Rory Best against Wales. It’s worth a small bet that he crosses the try line first at 8/1 with Bet Butler.
POINTERS…
Italy (+16) at 10/11 with Blue Square
Tommy Bowe to be first tryscorer at 8/1 with Bet Butler