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EY Item Club

  • UK unemployment rate to hit 5 per cent next year, EY predicts

    Economics

    The UK’s unemployment rate is set to rise to five per cent in the beginning of next year before falling back, a leading forecaster has said.  In its latest update on forecasts for UK growth, EY ITEM Club has suggested that the UK jobs market is set to see a further decline in the next [...]

    The UK economy could be on track for growth in the second quarter, according to a new survey.
  • Manufacturing recovery collapses amid spiralling costs

    Economics

    Manufacturing output hit a three-month low in August, a new survey has suggested, after early signs in the summer indicated the sector was on a path to recovery.  The Labour government is determined to deliver higher growth, with strategy papers outlining plans to boost production across the UK by lowering energy costs.  But new purchasing [...]

    Manufacturing sector faces mounting tribunal pressures amid economic uncertainty
  • UK economy shows early signs of recovery after ‘Awful April’ 

    Economics

    The UK economy looks set to recover from a torrid month for businesses in which higher energy costs and employment tax rises kicked into effect, fresh data has suggested.  S&P Global’s latest flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed that the UK’s services sector has seen moderate growth in output in May while contractions in manufacturing [...]

    Rachel Reeves now faces a difficult lead-up to the Autumn Budget after the Bank of England's "hawkish cut". Isabel Infantes/PA Wire
  • Mortgage borrowing surges ahead of stamp duty changes

    May 1, 2025

    Net borrowing or mortgages spiked by £9.7bn in March as house buyers looked to clinch deals before higher stamp duty taxes came into effect. Net borrowing levels exceeded £13bn, according to the Bank of England, as the rise compared to February beat market forecasts of £3.2bn.  EY ITEM Club’s Matt Swannell said the surge in [...]

  • EY: Two years of slow UK growth means ‘increased chances’ of tax rises

    April 28, 2025

    Rachel Reeves may have to resort to reversing Labour manifesto tax pledges as UK growth fails to exceed one per cent for two years running, EY ITEM Club have said, in the latest blow to the chancellor’s fiscal plans  The Chancellor has been warned by several forecasters that President Trump’s tariffs will hammer the UK [...]

  • Further tax rises ‘a good bet’ after Chancellor’s borrowing blow

    January 22, 2025

    Borrowing in the month of December was at its third highest level since monthly records began back in 1997, excluding only the pandemic and 2009.

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