Our polling shows hope of ‘change’ has turned to despair for Labour
The inaugural City PM / Freshwater Strategy poll makes grim reading for Keir Starmer as almost three-quarters believe the UK is heading in the wrong direction
The inaugural City PM / Freshwater Strategy poll makes grim reading for Keir Starmer. As the Prime Minister returns from the Madeira sun to snowy London, he is met not just by icy weather but by frosty attitudes from the British people.
Almost three-quarters believe the UK is heading in the wrong direction, and a majority expect things to worsen for the economy and their living standards. Starmer’s net approval rating (-36) is the lowest of any figure that we polled, including Donald Trump (-34). His Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, joins him down in the doldrums, she’s on a net approval of –30. Starmer has even fallen behind Opposition Leader Kemi Badenoch as preferred Prime Minister. Support for the Conservatives is at 29 per cent, nudging ahead of Labour on 28.
The City PM / Freshwater Strategy Poll shows how the hope of ‘change’ that was promised by Labour just last July has now turned to despair from voters.
The stagnating growth figures and over £40bn in tax hikes – despite promises to the contrary before the election – seem to have undermined political and economic confidence. Last month’s ‘not-a-reset’ speech has added confusion with six new policy ‘milestones’ on top of the government’s five missions. This technocratic morass has failed to budge public opinion in the government’s favour.
The governments’ backers will rightly point out that immediate economic turnaround was never likely; the Tories left the country in a rotten state and reform takes time to bear fruit. The government has also talked a good talk about backing business, housebuilding and the NHS. However, according to these figures, the public is not buying it. Three-quarters of voters lack confidence in the government’s plan to deliver economic growth.
Three-quarters of voters lack confidence in the government’s plan to deliver economic growth
There is some good news in this poll for City PM readers. Three-quarters believe that the financial services sector is important to the British economy. These attitudes run counter to the narrative – sometimes heard on both extremes of the political spectrum – that downplays the importance of this vital sector to Britain’s economy.
The saving grace for the government is a strong parliamentary majority. This arithmetic will safeguard against an early election, no matter the hijinks from commentators like Elon Musk. It is also unlikely that the parliamentary Labour Party will follow the Tory regicidal tendencies, at least not this year.
This means there is time for Starmer to turn things around. But this will depend on delivery. The City PM / Freshwater Strategy poll found that the public’s top priorities are cost of living, health and social care, and cutting immigration. If people feel better off at the next election today’s despair could rapidly turn to gratitude. But so far, voters are far from thankful.
Matthew Lesh is country manager at Freshwater Strategy