OPEC cites risks to summer oil outlook, holds demand forecast

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Oil prices closed in on three-month highs this afternoon amid expectations that major producers would agree to extend record production cuts at this week’s Opec meeting.

OPEC has flagged downside risks to summer oil demand as part of the backdrop to shock output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers on April 2, although the producer group maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023.

Some members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia and others, announced new voluntary production cuts on April 2. The unexpected move has prompted oil to rally towards $87 a barrel from below $80.

OPEC+ gave little information on the reasons for the surprise cuts, saying in a statement they were a “precautionary measure” to support market stability. Some OPEC delegates told Reuters they did not know the exact reasons for the reduction.

But in a discussion on the summer market outlook in its monthly oil report on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said oil inventories looked more ample and global growth faced a number of challenges.

“OECD commercial inventories have been building in recent months, and product balances are less tight than seen at the same time a year ago,” OPEC said.

OPEC also said the usual US seasonal demand uptick could take a hit from any economic weakness due to interest rate hikes, and the reopening of China after strict COVID containment measures were scrapped had yet to stop a decline in global refining intake of crude.

“It should be noted that potential challenges to global economic development include high inflation, monetary tightening, stability of financial markets and high sovereign, corporate and private debt levels,” OPEC said.

Still, OPEC maintained its forecast that oil demand will rise by 2.32m barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3 per cent, in 2023 and nudged up its forecast for China. The global figure was unchanged for a second straight month.

OPEC left its 2023 economic growth forecast at 2.6 per cent and cited potential downside risks. Still, it said the spillover from U.S. bank failures in March had had a limited economic impact.

Oil weakened after the report was released with Brent crude edging towards $87 a barrel.

The report also showed OPEC’s oil production fell in March, reflecting the impact of earlier output cuts pledged by OPEC+ to support the market as well as some unplanned outages.

OPEC said its March output fell by 86,000 bpd to 28.80m bpd.

Reuters – Alex Lawler