Only one of Southampton and Cardiff will survive in Premier League relegation scrap
It's turning into a two-way relegation fight between Cardiff and Southampton to fill the final place in the Premier League's bottom three.
For Huddersfield and Fulham it is already too late. The former are long gone and will already be preparing for next season in the Championship, while the Cottagers have got every decision wrong this season.
I was a little surprised when they appointed Claudio Ranieri. He has done great jobs at Nantes, Leicester and Chelsea among others, but I felt sorry for Slavisa Jokanovic when he lost his job. Ultimately Ranieri has not been the missing piece in the jigsaw.
Defensively they have not been right since day one. They have leaked a huge number of goals over the course of the season and have the worst goal difference in the league with -38, even worse than Huddersfield.
Things can change quickly but, with Leicester, Liverpool and Manchester City in their next three matches, it's hard to see their situation improving.
Meanwhile, everyone from Crystal Palace in 13th place upwards is all but safe from the drop and, with nine games to go, they and Bournemouth only need a win or two to guarantee their safety.
Beneath them Newcastle, Brighton and Burnley have got experience of battling relegation and I expect all three of them to stay up too.
In Sean Dyche, Burnley have a manager who knows how to come out on top of a relegation scrap and when they need a win they will pull it out of the bag, although they do have a tough run-in until the end of the season that sees them play four of the top six in the final nine games.
Matches against Wolves, Bournemouth and particularly Cardiff could prove decisive for them.
Ralph Hasenhuttl doesn't have the same experience as Neil Warnock in the Premier League (Source: Getty)
Chris Hughton will be pulling his hair out at Brighton's disappointing form since the turn of the year but will have been glad to see them get three points for the first time in 2019 against Huddersfield last weekend.
Importantly, they have points on the board and a game in hand, so I think they will be okay.
It leaves one space in the bottom three for either Cardiff or Southampton, and if I had to pick one to stay up, I think the Saints probably have enough.
Their superior goal difference of -17 compared with Cardiff's -32 is practically worth a point in itself, but the deficit of two points between them at the moment is not impossible to overcome.
No one wants a relegation on their CV but Cardiff will have the advantage of playing without fear because they really have nothing to lose.
When you feel doomed to the drop, players relax a little and it allows the whole team to play with freedom, as opposed to when you're desperately fighting for points and it ends up with 11 headless chickens running around the pitch.
Cardiff also have an experienced manager in Neil Warnock who has been there and done it all before, whereas Ralph Hasenhuttl's lack of Premier League relegation fight experience is a chink in his armour.
Southampton and Cardiff both have to play Brighton before the end of the season, in what will be two crucial matches that could decide who goes down.