Lucky bets won’t save the UK economy – the government needs evidence
The government must stop making decisions from the dark and properly prioritise (and fund) research to grow the UK economy, writes Jane Frost
Since Labour took the reins in 2024, it has been willing the UK economy off the ground with a string of policies, strategies and funding packages which the government hope will set the wheels of growth whirring again.
Now we’re facing a fresh wave of geopolitical instability alongside strained trading relationships with long-standing partners. A looming oil crisis and inflation nudging to 3.3 per cent in March has many fearing a return to higher interest rates.
All of this comes as the corporate landscape is simultaneously being transformed by AI, with leaders hurriedly deciphering what it means for business strategies, risk management and our future workforce.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show job vacancies at their lowest in five years and the number of economically inactive people rising.
Against a backdrop of profound uncertainty, evidence and research-backed insight are the critical foundations underpinning confident, intelligent decisions – and the only way to squeeze meaningful growth out of the economy.
Strategy over speculation
When we talk about evidence-backed decisions, our minds typically leap to stats and figures. Business leaders are swimming (sometimes drowning) in data – from commercial performance to customer reviews, from third-party economic data to internal productivity levels. With the rise of AI, the information at our disposal is growing exponentially.
But we must be careful not to equate cold, hard numbers with real insight – it takes a specific skillset to sift through the noise in a fast-changing world, to uncover outliers and assess their significance, to separate correlation from causation. This is where leaders must look to qualified research professionals.
Let’s be clear, this isn’t about trawling through data to identify the figures which will retroactively support a decision already made. It’s about dispensing with our assumptions, listening to the intelligence gleaned and building a true understanding of audiences, markets, geographies and what will drive real commercial growth. The strategy for an FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) brand, for example, based on the priorities and motivations of 2025’s shoppers will struggle to generate returns set against today’s volatility.
Making the public purse go further
It’s not just about understanding people and how to appeal to them to boost the bottom line. It’s also providing the confidence that squeezed budgets are well spent.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the public sector. In Labour’s nearly two years in power, the population has been asked to contribute a post-war record of £26bn in taxes across the parliament – consequently with heightened scrutiny over spending. Yet the coffers remain under huge pressure.
Regardless of the outcome of May’s elections, local, regional and national governments will need the confidence that they are making each and every pound go further if they want to move our economy forward and improve living standards across the country. This can only come from policies which are supported by strong evidence confidently interpreted and intelligently applied.
Playing to our strengths
Growth has been notoriously elusive over this decade.
However, there are UK success stories to point to and opportunities for further growth, and the research sector itself is actually one of them – despite being overshadowed by the attention placed on wider creative industries and professional services, of which it is a vital part.
An independent report by PA Consulting recently found the research and evidence sector contributes £18.7bn GVA to the national economy, accounting for between 0.7-0.8 per cent of UK GVA. Throughout Brexit and various regulatory changes, it has demonstrated continued adaptability and enjoyed strong growth as a result.
In fact, we’re exporting more research expertise than ever, with the number of UK-based providers conducting projects abroad doubling since 2012. Punching well above its weight, ours is the world’s second-largest research sector, exceeded only by the US.
We should be using more of this expertise at home. With high quality evidence and insight at their fingertips, c-suite leaders and policymakers can navigate extremely uncertain times and chart a more confident course – one that heads towards the sunnier uplands of growth.
Jane Frost CBE is CEO of the Market Research Society