Horse Racing Betting Tips: South can leave Lincoln rivals all at sea for Kirby
EVEN though the Flat season doesn’t officially start until Guineas weekend, the traditional curtain raiser takes place at Doncaster tomorrow.
The Unibet Lincoln (3.35pm) is the first leg of the ‘spring double’ and is followed by next weekend’s Randox Health Grand National.
Phil Kirby is planning an audacious bid at snaring both prizes and I think he can get the first one in the bag with new recruit SOUTH SEAS who is available at 16/1 with Coral.
We always hear plenty about Group horses in handicaps in this type of race, but normally those on the way up rather than the way back down.
Addeybb was a prime example of that 12 months ago, winning this at a canter and then landing a Group Two just a few weeks later.
Punters clearly think Charlie Appleby’s Auxerre can do the same thing a year on, but his form doesn’t justify a price of 7/2 and he simply has to be opposed.
My selection joined Kirby’s north Yorkshire yard in January and this race has always been the early season target.
Formerly trained by Andrew Balding, he won the Group Three Solario Stakes on just his third career start in 2016 and was then second to Thunder Snow in the Group One Criterium International.
He hasn’t managed to get his head in front since that success at Sandown, but he has now dropped to a mark of 100 and shapes like a horse who needs a change of scenery.
Kirby has done well with horses from other yards and I have no doubt this five-year-old son of Lope De Vega will win a decent race at some point this campaign.
The dry weather isn’t ideal, as he definitely would prefer softer ground, but it’s not going to be rattling quick and he should be fine on it.
Jamie Spencer has been booked, the yard is in great form and while we don’t know if his draw in 16 is good, a number of the leading fancies are drawn high.
Humbert and Kynren finished second and third respectively in last year’s consolation race, the Spring Mile, and both have claims.
Softer conditions would have been more suitable for both and I’m not sure there is much mileage in their prices.
The same can be said for Irish raider Saltonstall, who was 25/1 a week ago, is now no bigger than 10/1 with Ladbrokes.
He has gone well fresh in the past and has moved to an in-form yard, I just can’t bring myself to back him at the price.
The action on Town Moor gets underway with the Unibet Cammidge Trophy (1.50pm).
James Tate’s Invincible Army looks like going off favourite having landed a Group Three at Ascot on his reappearance last season before beaten a nose by subsequent Group One-winner Sands Of Mali in the Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes.
He has to be respected, but with Charlie Hills’ horses running so well I’m siding with EQUILATERAL at 7/2 with Ladbrokes.
This son of Equiano put up an incredible performance to win by eight lengths over this course and distance on his seasonal debut last May.
He was disappointing in the Commonwealth Cup after that but it may just be that he is better fresh as all three of his wins have been after a break.
I expect Hugo Palmer’s son of Dubawi, IRONCLAD, to take the maiden at 4.45pm.
He was very well-backed to make a winning debut at Kempton earlier this month but was slowly away and could never make up the ground.
He actually stayed on really well in the closing stages and this step up to ten furlongs will suit.
Doncaster also races on Sunday and the bet of the day is FOX CHAMPION in the Unibet Novice Stakes (2.35pm).
Richard Hannon’s Kodiac colt broke his maiden tag at Kempton in October, looking like a very promising young horse.
This looks a hot race but he can give Silvestre de Sousa an early winner in the King Power colours.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Equilateral 1.50pm Doncaster
South Seas e/w 3.35pm Doncaster
Ironclad 4.45pm Doncaster
SUNDAY
Fox Champion 2.35pm Doncaster