Horse racing betting tips: Sam has perfect Profile to strike in the Ballymore
WITH just over a week to go until the start of the best four days in the National Hunt racing calendar, the long-range weather forecast suggests that we may be in for a wet spell in the build up.
Cheltenham’s clerk of the course Simon Claisse suggested on Wednesday that there is every chance the meeting could open up on soft ground which would be a real turn up after the extraordinarily dry spell we’ve had.
Even though the ante-post markets are now pretty mature, to my eyes there are a few horses that could drastically shorten in the betting should the heavens open.
One of those is the Mouse Morris-trained SAMS PROFILE in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle which opens the second day of the meeting.
There isn’t anyone better at readying one for the Festival than Grand National-winning trainer Morris who doesn’t bring them over from Ireland each year for the fun of it.
He has already saddled seven winners at jump racing’s biggest meeting and Sams Profile has slipped under the radar here.
Having made a pleasing start to life over obstacles when winning his maiden hurdle comfortably at Cork back in November over two miles, he returned to that track over three miles on very soft ground the following month.
He finished a brave second to Derrinross that day and just seemed to be outstayed.
Morris then stepped him up into Grade One company at Naas in January where he finished an eye-catching second to Battleoverdoyen over 2m4f.
The ground would have been too fast for him that day and he kept on really well having jumped poorly.
An extra furlong and the famous Cheltenham hill on rain-softened ground should play to his strengths here and he looks massively overpriced at 25/1.
There is a danger he could be stepped up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett if the rain doesn’t materialise, but he is only five-years-old and this looks the right race for him.
Some firms are offering 20/1 non-runner no bet and that may well be a safer option for those less risk averse.
The talented novices at the top of the market are respected, but if the rain arrives, I expect Sams Profile to line up here and potentially start at a single-figure price.
Ante-post betting is always fraught with danger and that was highlighted earlier in the week when last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner Penhill was ruled out from defending his crown.
Paisley Park is now as short as 5/4 to win the feature on the third day of the meeting and that seems a silly price to me.
He was almost tailed off behind KILBRICKEN STORM in last year’s Albert Bartlett and I’m never a fan of siding with horses at that sort of price without Festival form.
Instead, I’m prepared to give Colin Tizzard’s runner a chance now he switches back to hurdling after failing to shine over fences.
He is reportedly in great shape at home, has the hurdling form in the book and will relish any rain that arrives.
At 16/1 he could be a really interesting player, particularly if the going gets tough.
POINTERS
Sams Profile e/w
25/1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
Kilbricken Storm e/w
16/1 Stayers’ Hurdle