Gloomy Brits now think Reform is the party of business
Almost three quarters of voters (72 per cent) say that they are not confident in the government’s plan to achieve economic growth, and a majority (53 per cent) believe things are set to get worse for the UK economy over the next 12 months, says Matthew Lesh
In 1997, Tony Blair promised that things can only get better. Last year, Keir Starmer’s more measured offer of “Change” followed 14 years of lacklustre Tory rule. Today, the remaining hope for a brighter future is fast evaporating.
The latest City PM / Freshwater Strategy Poll is a wake-up call for those who think British politics is about to turn a corner and get back to “normal”. Our polling finds deep and severe pessimism and a widespread feeling that the system is broken. This sentiment comes amid strong disapproval of our political leaders, growing support for radical alternatives and millions of Brits even considering a move abroad.
Less than a quarter of Brits (24 per cent) agree with the statement “Britain’s best days lay ahead of it”, while 41 per cent disagree. Among Reform voters, this sentiment is even more pronounced, with a whopping 59 per cent disagreeing that Britain’s best days are ahead.
With his finger on the pulse of public opinion, a plurality of British voters (41 per cent) agree with City PM editor-in-chief, Christian May, that Britain is a poor country that thinks it’s a rich one, while just 29 per cent disagree. Almost three quarters of voters (72 per cent) say that they are not confident in the government’s plan to achieve economic growth, and a majority (53 per cent) believe things are set to get worse for the UK economy over the next 12 months.
In a well-functioning society, there is a reasonable expectation that each generation will be better off than the one before, with hard work leading to opportunities and upward mobility. However, in today’s Britain, this promise is fading fast as incomes continue to stagnate and access to wealth-building housing has become out of reach for younger generations. A majority of British voters (52 per cent) now believe, that over their lifetime, they will be no better off or worse off financially than their parents were.
Faced with the prospect of their lives falling short of expectations, around 2 per cent of Brits say that they are actively planning to leave the country in the next year, that is about one million people. Younger Brits and those who live in London are the most likely to be considering moving abroad, with around one-in-five young Brits (22 per cent) saying they have actively spent time looking into it. The most common reason given for wanting to leave is simply seeking a better cost of living.
When a whopping 9-in-10 voters believe it is important for the government to support the needs of businesses, the engine room of Britian’s economy, you can see why Reform seems to be having its moment in British politics right now
For those who intend to stay, many are turning away from the traditional political parties. Reform UK is polling at its highest share of the vote since the City PM / Freshwater Strategy poll began in January. With a significant lead over Labour and the Conservatives, who are on 22 per cent and 18 per cent respectively, Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage is a serious contender for Number 10, with his party on 33 per cent. Farage’s personal approval (-4), though nothing spectacular, is significantly higher than that of his opponents, Kemi Badenoch (-11) and Keir Starmer (-37). Reform has successfully become the ‘none of the above’ party, a place where past Labour and Tory voters can park their vote in protest.
Farage has undoubtedly been boosted by concern about immigration. But that’s not all anymore. Farage and Reform are now scored by voters as best placed to understand how to support the needs of businesses in the UK, not least because his opponents in Labour and the Conservatives were scored so poorly by voters. When a whopping 9-in-10 voters believe it is important for the government to support the needs of businesses, the engine room of Britian’s economy, you can see why Reform seems to be having its moment in British politics right now.
There are a few green shoots in the polling. For instance, a majority of Brits (61 per cent) say that they would rather stay in Britian and change things for the better than leave. And it’s young Britons who are most likely to say that Britain’s best days lie ahead of it (41 per cent). Let’s hope, for their sake, that Britain regains its sense of optimism about the future.
Matthew Lesh is Country Manager (UK) at Freshwater Strategy