Friday’s GDP data ‘could be as good as it gets for a while’
Analysts expect UK GDP to have eked upwards in June, with official confirmation coming on Friday of this week.
Resilience in consumer spending and better-than-expected PMI figures suggest the Office for National Statistics will declare the economy grew in June when it releases its monthly data later this week.
Oxford Economics expects the ONS to confirm a 0.2 per cent month on month increase from May into June, with the King’s coronation – and an extra bank holiday – providing a helpful comparator.
Lower fuel prices have also helped.
That would leave output across the whole second quarter growing 0.1 per cent on the first three months of the year.
The second half of the year is expected to be tougher for the UK economy, as increases in the interest rate filter through to the wider economy.
This week’s readout “could be as good as it gets for a while,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets.
“With rates now at their highest levels for over 15 years and more and more fixed rate mortgages set to be refinanced, the second half of the year for the UK economy could well be a lot more challenging,” he added.