Forget Burnham, what will Starmer do next?
The end of a premiership means finding an epilogue, so what will Keir Starmer’s be, asks John Oxley
Around the summer parties of Westminster, the key conversation is “What will Andy actually do?” The presumptive PM has always been something of a political enigma (or weathervane, depending on your perspective). He has been out of Westminster for years, and his “Manchesterism” mayoralty is often as much legend as policy. Meanwhile, his leadership campaign has been both rapid and vague. We don’t even know who his likely Chancellor is.
There is a less-discussed topic that raises many questions and few answers – Sir Keir Starmer’s next move. The production of former Prime Ministers is perhaps Britain’s only growth industry. Come Monday, there will be 10 living former PMs for the first time in modern history. It is a curious position, accorded influence, but tainted by failure. Sir Keir will have to find a way to play it.
Foreign affairs, backbenches or something different?
There is a suggestion he might move to the foreign secretary. International affairs have dominated his time in Number 10, and he has forged friendships on the world stage. It is also an area where Burnham seems to have little direct interest. But keeping him on seems unlikely. While the return of a former PM, like David Cameron, to the Foreign Office can bolster a cabinet’s experience and gravitas, that really needs the power of time to heal. Starmer, after all, is deeply unpopular, and maintaining him would limit Burnham’s ability to look like a new broom. It would also deny him the chance to use the position to placate any potential rivals.
Returning to the backbenches is perhaps a more honourable route. Departing from your constituency when you lose a top job looks a bit like a flounce. Rishi Sunak, for example, has stayed on, using his position to be a behind-the-scenes influence, as well as picking up lucrative private sector appointments. There is a risk here, too – Ted Heath remained in parliament for a quarter of a century after being ousted as Tory leader. While credited for his public service, he could never escape allegations that he remained because he could never quite get over being usurped by Thatcher.
Outside of Parliament, PMs can enjoy private lives but seem to struggle to adjust to them. Major, Brown, and Blair are prone to frequent interventions in the politics of the day. It is unclear how welcome they are or how well they are listened to. Boris Johnson has been far more cynical, maximising his earnings through paid speeches for anyone who will stump up the cash. Liz Truss is probably less in demand and spends her time defending her record at fringe conferences and increasingly obscure political podcasts.
Starmer should choose a meaningful legacy
Starmer should hope for better. He at least took two years to disassemble in the office, rather than a few weeks. A bit like Sunak, he occupies an odd place in politics. Not successful enough to be a grand figure, not a failure enough to be ignored. If he cares about his legacy, he needs something where his experience and position can still count.
This may suit him better than the top job. For all his faults as a PM, Starmer is at his best when focused on a small, personal issue. He seems genuinely moved by those who have suffered personal injustice, yet is unable to scale that to pulling the levers of state. A form of redemption could come from that. Perhaps he might alight on a cause like the Post Office scandal. Something so far ignored, but desperate for rectification. Or take up the broader banner of those who have been harmed by a state uneasy about admitting its mistakes, pushing for bigger changes in the law. The end of a premiership means finding an epilogue. Starmer should try to make it meaningful.
John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator