England v Scotland: Scouting the Scots with a bit of help from investment banking ahead of the Euro 2020 Battle of Britain
It’s England v Scotland at Euro 2020 this evening as the Battle of Britain returns to major tournament football.
Gareth Southgate will have his own ideas about Scotland’s strengths and weaknesses under Steve Clarke.
But, should he need any more pointers, we can offer some answers based on quantitative analysis methods borrowed from investment banking.
City-based Carteret Analytics uses a proprietary objective measure of each player’s contribution to their team’s performance called Carteret Match Impact (CMI).
It used those tools to assess Scotland in their opening Euro 2020 match against the Czech Republic, which ended in a 2-0 defeat.
England v Scotland: Case for the defence
The objective quantitative analysis underlines the importance of Scotland’s defence, with the three most influential players all part of the back five.
Captain Andy Robertson led by example, making the biggest impact on their display with a CMI of 11.6 per cent.
Left-back Robertson made six key passes, seven accurate crosses and attempted four dribbles – leading in all of those fields.
Centre-backs Liam Cooper and Grant Hanley were the next most effective.
Cooper (CMI 9.4 per cent) led the way with 81 passes and a completion rate of 80 per cent.
Hanley (CMI 9.3 per cent), meanwhile, made five clearances. Robertson’s two was next best in that department.
England v Scotland: Why Adams should start
Che Adams has a strong case to start up front against England instead of Ryan Christie, according to the analysis.
Adams replaced Christie at half-time against the Czechs. Although neither managed a shot on target, Adams posted a CMI of 5.8 per cent to Christie’s 4.7 per cent.
Midfielder John McGinn brings dynamism and goal threat to the Scotland side but will be hoping for a more controlled display.
McGinn lost possession eight times against the Czech Republic, twice as frequently as any of his team-mates.
To read the report in full, and other research by Carteret Analytics, visit their website here.