Election 2024: Rishi Sunak could lose seat on July 4, poll finds
Rishi Sunak could become the first ever sitting Prime Minister to lose their seat at a general election, new polling analysis suggests.
The Conservatives could find themselves with just 53 seats left, according to Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling and analysis for the Telegraph.
As well as a historical first, it would represent the worst result for the party in the modern era, and a huge drop from Boris Johnson’s 80-seat majority in 2019.
Three-quarters of the cabinet are at risk of losing their seat, the poll warned, as well as Sunak whose Richmond constituency in Yorkshire was said to be still in the balance – due to the close margins.
In contrast, the pollsters found Labour could win up to 516 seats and secure a Commons majority of 382 – double that won in 1997 – as Sir Keir Starmer becomes prime minister.
And the Liberal Democrats are set to triumph in 50 constituencies, the analysis suggested, with the party just a few MPs shy of beating the Tories to become the official opposition.
However, the polling also found Reform UK, despite increasing support in the polls, is forecast to win no seats, leaving Nigel Farage with his eighth failed attempt to get elected.
The study was carried out using multilevel regression and post-stratification, or MRP, which means pollsters can extrapolate from detailed poll questions on a seat-by-seat basis.
It comes after another poll by More in Common and the News Agents podcast found the Lib Dems could be set to surge to their pre-coalition era numbers.
The news emerges just 15 days ahead of election day, in a campaign which has increasingly seen the Prime Minister visit and campaign in seats with previously strong Tory majorities.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also battling for his political future in Godalming and Ash where the Lib Dems are hoping to romp to victory.
YouGov has also said its latest study projects Labour is on course to achieve a 200-seat majority, with 425 seats..
The Tories are predicted to secure 108 seats, the Liberal Democrats 67, SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid Cymru four and the Green Party two, under YouGov’s findings.