Election 2024: Reform UK will overtake Tories in polls, Ipsos boss predicts 

Reform UK is likely to overtake the Conservative Party in at least some polls in a so-called ‘crossover moment’, the boss of a top polling firm has predicted.

Kelly Beaver, chief executive of market research firm Ipsos UK, told Times Radio on Sunday: “There are some who say we may see during the next couple of weeks some of the polls coming out with Reform having a higher vote share than the Conservative Party themselves.

“I think we are going to see a moment like that and there will be a lot of coverage of it, I’m sure, because some of the polls at the minute only have the Conservative Party polling two per cent ahead of Reform.”

It comes after a difficult few days for the Conservatives, with Rishi Sunak buffeted by criticism of his decision to leave the D-Day commemorations in Normandy early.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage claimed Sunak was “utterly disconnected by class, by privilege from how the ordinary folk in this country feel” while former defence secretary and ex-Tory leadership contender Penny Mordaunt called it “very wrong” in Friday’s TV debate.

Beaver also likened the situation to that of Canada in 1993, which saw the main right-wing party, the Progressive Conservatives, under Kim Campbell, lose all but two seats.

They had official party status removed, and were effectively supplanted by Canada’s Reform party, which became the broad home of right-wing voters.

“We’re also hearing this called a sort-of ‘Canada moment’ because there was a moment in Canada where one of the major parties ultimately ended up giving way to a party akin to reform and became the second major party,” she said.

But the Ipsos boss stressed that in the UK “the devil is in the detail here”.

Methodology by different pollsters varies, with some asking respondents more detailed questions about who could win their vote, or prompting again when met with a ‘don’t know’.

This can alter polling outcomes, and explains the variations we’ve seen over polling results in recent weeks.

Aggregator polls average out the results of different polling companies, hence the oft-quoted Labour 20-point poll lead.

Beaver added that she would be “surprised” if Reform UK overtook the Conservatives at an aggregated level, but suggested it could happen in smaller polls with varying methodologies.

“The poll of polls still sits at around a 20-point lead for Labour, so at top line level I would say we’re not seeing a lot of movement,” she said, despite a torrid week for the Prime Minister.

Cabinet minister Mel Stride told Sky News on Sunday that Sunak “deeply regrets” his decision to leave the D-Day 80th anniversary events early and said he was “deeply patriotic”.

He added: “The Prime Minister has accepted that he made a mistake. He has apologised unequivocally for that… he will be deeply uncomfortable with what has happened.”

Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer said: “Clearly he’s got questions he needs to answer in relation to what happened on D-Day and at the moment he doesn’t seem to want to answer them.”

The Labour leader added: “I know what I stand for, I know why I was there on Thursday, paid my respects and saying thank you. And I was humbled actually, when I was there.”