Early London mayor election in-person turnout just 12 per cent of 2016
Internal Labour polling numbers are showing in-person turnout as of noon in today’s London mayor election was just 11.6 per cent of the total 2016 turnout, raising fears among Sadiq Khan’s camp about a surprise defeat.
It is expected there will be many more postal votes this year, due to Covid-19, however it is unknown which candidate they will favour or how many people actually sent in their ballots.
London Elects said a little more than 1.1m postal ballots were sent out of 5.9m registered voters.
A Labour campaign source told City PM that the party was consistently hearing that “voter turnout is very low” across the capital and that Khan’s camp were “concerned”.
Labour were already worried about a low turnout providing a surprise upset of the incumbent, however it is believed the early turnout is even lower than the party expected.
The source said “it looks like at 12 noon most polling stations were at about 11.6 per cent of 2016 turnout”.
The turnout in 2016 was 45.3 per cent, with 2.6m votes.
If Labour’s numbers are correct that would mean just 301,600 people had voted as of noon, not counting postal ballots.
Polls have consistently put Khan in front of Tory challenger Shaun Bailey by 20+ points over the past year, however a YouGov poll days ago closed that margin to 12 points.
It is thought by Khan’s team that a low turnout, likely driven by a low turnout among younger voters, would benefit Bailey.
Polls close at 10pm today and a winner is not expected to be declared until Saturday evening at the earliest.
Covid precautions mean that the counting process will take longer than usual.