Dreams of Orange Moon rising over Cheltenham
ALL EYES will be on Cheltenham this Saturday when the Cotswolds course hosts its Festival Trials Day, which could see a surprise outing for superstar hurdler Constitution Hill.
Nicky Henderson announced earlier this week that the Unibet Hurdle (3:00pm) was a distinct possibility for Constitution Hill, having previously thought he would head straight to the Champion Hurdle in March.
If he does turn up, it will be fantastic for all those in attendance and many more watching on, and gives the card a star attraction.
The ground at Cheltenham is currently described as being good-to-soft but the weather in the next few days looks a mixed bag, with the potential for a deluge of rain on Friday.
If that arrives, the ground could be hard work and that will have to be factored into any bets.
Local Cheltenham trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’ team have hit a rich vein of form of late, operating at a near 25 percent strike-rate in the last fortnight, and I like the look of his GUARD YOUR DREAMS in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase (1.15pm).
Cheltenham is never an easy course for novice chasers, but this horse has the advantage of strong course form as well as plenty of chasing experience.
He won first time out over fences this season at Warwick and has subsequently run three nice races over two-and-a-half miles on both the Old and New Courses at Cheltenham, with perhaps his fourth in the December Gold Cup last time out the pick of his efforts.
Andrew Asquith of Timeform remarked: “He was asked a big question on just his fourth start over fences – his first out of novice company – in the December Gold Cup over the same course and distance he will face on Saturday, and emerged with plenty of credit.”
He remains on an unchanged mark of 136 and having run in open company last time this represents something of a drop in class, so I make him a strong each-way bet at attractive odds of 10/1.
The following race, the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (1.50pm), is a tough one to decipher with not much separating those at the head of the market.
Looking further down the betting though, I think a decent case can be made for Irish raider MOON D’ORANGE.
He has only had four starts over fences but has shown promise on all of those outings, including when finishing second last time out at Newbury in a race that was run at a ferocious gallop.
I have a feeling this race could cut up and it might only be a small field that goes to post, which could suit Moon D’Orange, especially if he’s ridden prominently over this shorter trip.
At 10/1, he’s another I will be siding with each-way.
One horse to be interested in if the rain does arrive and the going is soft or worse is the Gary and Josh Moore-trained BOTOX HAS, who is set to take his chance in the Grade Two Cleeve Hurdle (3.35pm).
He’s another horse that goes well at Cheltenham, while Crambo and Strong Leader toward the top of the market have to prove that they enjoy the test of Prestbury Park.
The last two times he has encountered soft ground or worse, Botox Has won in Grade 2 company at Wetherby and then Haydock, so soft conditions are crucial to his chances, and if the rain arrives his price of 16/1 will be long gone.
With rain around, there’s a fair chance that soft ground will be the order of the day on Saturday, and that makes Botox Has worth chancing at his current odds.
And if City PM readers are looking for more value this week, look no further than Sandown’s Grand Military Gold Cup Day on Friday, where you can attend for only a fiver by using the code GMGC5.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Guard Your Dreams e/w 1.15pm Cheltenham
Moon D’Orange e/w 1.50pm Cheltenham
Botox Has e/w 3.35pm Cheltenham