Draw looks the safest bet in White Hart Lane clash
TOTTENHAM vs LIVERPOOL
SUNDAY 4.00PM – SKY SPORTS 1
THIS is a huge season for both Harry Redknapp and Rafa Benitez and they will know that they can send out a big message to their rivals with a win here. Liverpool have the edge in recent league encounters, winning five of the last seven meetings, but they lost at White Hart Lane in both the league and the Carling Cup last season.
This is the first time Spurs haven’t been favourite in the ‘without the Big Four’ market since it was introduced, but they have a strong side and defences will be wary of an attack consisting of Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Robbie Keane.
Benitez will regard this season as his best chance for Premier League glory, with Man United having to cope without Cristiano Ronaldo and Chelsea under yet another new manager. He will obviously want to start with three points, but I also reckon both bosses will be desperate to avoid defeat, which may make this a cagey contest. Spurs have been level at the interval in seven of their last 12 home games, including three of the four against the Big Four last season, whilst the Reds have gone in all-square at half-time in seven of their last 12 away to top-half, non-Big Four sides since 2007/08.
Both the half-time draw and full-time draw look strong shouts to me, but the total goals market is also interesting. There were seven goals scored in the two league contests between these two last season, but 11 of Spurs’ 15 home games under Harry Redknapp last season featured less than three goals, with nine producing two or less. Liverpool have also been involved in their fair share of low scoring encounters recently, with six of their last nine away games at top-half, non-Big Four sides producing two goals or fewer and five of them seeing one or no goals.
Pointers…
Half-time draw at 11/10 general
Match to be drawn at 12/5 on Betdaq
Sell total match goals at 2.5 with Sporting Index
EVERTON vs ARSENAL
TOMORROW 5.30PM – ESPN
EVERTON haven’t been very active in the transfer market this summer, but they thoroughly deserved their fifth place finish last season and David Moyes will be hoping to nick fourth off Arsenal this time around.
They haven’t done well against the best sides in recent seasons though, failing to win any of their last nine at home against the Big Four and losing six of those. That said, they have won two of their last four against the Gunners at Goodison and nearly made that three out of four last season until Robin van Persie netted a 90th minute equaliser.
Arsenal have a difficult opening to the season, so I don’t think Arsene Wenger would mind too much if his side picked up a point here. They have only lost one of their last nine trips to top-six non-Big Four sides, but they have drawn five of them, so the stalemate looks the safest call. Bettorlogic’s analysis shows that this game looks set to be another low scoring encounter, as there have been under three goals in all of the Toffees’ last five home games against the Big Four, with 13 of 19 (68 per cent) since December 2004 also under that mark. The Gunners, when travelling to top-six non-Big Four teams since 2006, have been involved in five games under 2.5 goals and only two above that figure.
Pointers…
Match to be drawn at 9/4 with Hills
Sell total match goals at 2.5 with Sporting Index
MANCHESTER UTD vs BIRMINGHAM CITY
SUNDAY 1.30PM – SKY SPORTS 1
THIS is something of a baptism of fire for Alex McLeish and he will be hoping his players can rise to the challenge of facing the reigning champions in their back yard for the opening game of the season. The signs aren’t good, with promoted teams winning just one of 36 games at the Big Four since 2006/07 and losing 29 times; 20 of those by a margin of at least two goals. United have won all nine home games against promoted sides in that time, five by two or more goals. They have also won six of those nine games without conceding, whilst promoted sides have failed to score in 64 per cent of games at the Big Four since 2006/07. Sir Alex Ferguson’s side are as short as 1/6 to win this game, so I’d rather take the 8/11 available with Boylesports that United win without conceding.
Pointer…
Man United to win without conceding at 8/11 with Boylesports