DEBATE: With less than six months to go until Brexit, does this Budget actually matter?

With less than six months to go until Brexit, does this Budget actually matter?

Rhiannon Kinghall Were is head of tax policy at Macfarlanes.

Getting this year’s Budget right matters, both politically and economically.

It is taking place in a highly charged political environment – even if it appears literate on paper, this is not the year for a “pasty tax” fiasco. A negative reaction could have a profound impact on the government.

Given the demands for spending increases, we can expect tax rises – and the choice of where they come is crucial. A digital tax on online sales is possible, and the proposed reduction in corporation tax to 17 per cent in 2020 looks vulnerable. But while that might not lose many votes, it would be a retrograde step at a time when the UK needs to show that it is open for business.

The Budget is also a chance to give certainty to businesses. A country’s business competitiveness is not just about tax rates – it also depends on the government’s attitude to corporates, the coherence of the legislation, the compliance burden, and the certainty with which it can be relied upon. Getting that right matters.

No pressure, Hammond.

Dr Stuart Thomson, head of public affairs at Bircham Dyson Bell, says NO.

The winds of political change are swirling around this Budget. The timing has been chosen for the politics of the Brexit negotiations – the Budget is the final throw of the negotiating dice, aimed primarily not at business, but at audiences at home, within the Tory party, as well as officials in Brussels.

Businesses cannot plan for the future because of the uncertainty over Brexit – so how can the government?

This Budget is pure politics. Certainly the chancellor will try to pull some rabbits from the hat to “end austerity”. It is, after all, his chance to show his credentials as a future leader. But he will also chuck some dead cats on the table to apply pressure for the type of Brexit he wants.

The really important announcements will come in next year’s Comprehensive Spending Review. It will show the post-Brexit winners, losers, and the priorities for the government.

And regardless of anything else, plan for an emergency Budget after Brexit.