Chelsea can continue amazing home record
CHELSEA vs TOTTENHAM
Sunday 4pm, Sky Sports 1
CHELSEA V BOLTON, Saturday 13th December 2003, won’t resonate with most football fans, but that was the last time Chelsea tasted defeat in the league at Stamford Bridge against non Big Four opposition. They are now unbeaten at home against such teams in an astonishing 91 Premier League games (W67-D24-L0) and Carlo Ancelotti will be hoping his side can continue that record against Spurs on Sunday.
Harry Redknapp – who suffered his first loss against a member of the Big Four as Spurs boss last weekend – will have reason for concern when he realises that his club have not won away at the Big Four since 1993. In fact, since 2006, their record reads a highly unsatisfactory W0-D4-L11 from their 15 trips to the Big Four, whilst their record at Chelsea since 1992 is W0-D6-L11.
Punters have to be very brave to oppose Chelsea at the moment and I’m certainly not going to be doing that tomorrow. Regular readers of this column will hopefully have bought their season points with Sporting Index at 82.5 and can now sell at 85.5 to lock in a profit, although I’d be happy to let it run.
However, one interesting bet for this game comes from a look at the half-time stats. Tottenham have been level at the interval in 10 of their 15 matches (67 per cent) at the Big Four since 2006 and have drawn more than half (9/17) of their away games under Harry Redknapp. They will be disappointed after last week’s defeat, so it will be no surprise if they set their stall out to keep things tight in the opening period.
Spurs are definitely much improved this season and if we compare them with the side that finished fifth in 05/06 and 06/07, that team took just two points from eight games at the Big Four. However, they were level at the interval in five of those eight games, with four of the six defeats coming after a half-time stalemate, including both games at Stamford Bridge.
POINTERS…
Chelsea to win at 1/2 with Boylesports
HT draw / FT Chelsea at 7/2 on Betdaq
Sell total match goals at 2.8 with Sporting Index
MANCHESTER UNITED vs MANCHESTER CITY
Sunday 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1
EMMANUEL ADEBAYOR and co. did enough to silence the doubters at Eastlands last weekend when City made it four Premier League victories on the bounce. There has been much comment and debate since, but that has overshadowed the fact that City looked very good and they will certainly have made the big boys sit up and take notice.
It’s difficult to analyse City at the moment because they are a completely new team, but they have only managed to win once away at a Big Four side since 2003/04 (W1-D5-L18), failing to score in 14 of those, losing 12 to nil, 12 at both half-time/full-time and eight by two goals or more. On the other side, since 2006/07 United have won 19 of 20 home games against current top-half, non Big Four sides (the one defeat was to City in 2007/08) – 11 of these were won to nil, 13 half-time/full-time and 13 by more than one goal.
There have been 12 Manchester derbies at Old Trafford in the Premier League era, with United winning seven (W7-D2-L1) and all of those coming by the win half-time/full-time margin. In fact, they’ve been leading at the break in nine of the 12 and have also managed to win five of the games by two goals and four to nil.
Sporting Index’s bookings market is always interesting in this fixture, especially after Adebayor’s behaviour last weekend, and their spread is 52-66 (10 points per yellow card, 25 per red). The average make-up for the last two derbies at Eastlands is 67.5, but the last two here have averaged just 15 points, so probably best to leave it alone this time.
POINTERS…
Man United to win at 4/6 with Hills
HT Man United/FT Man United at 6/4 with Boylesports
WEST HAM vs LIVERPOOL
Tomorrow 5.30pm, ESPN
EVERYONE was quick to press the panic button after Liverpool lost to Spurs and Aston Villa, but a few more wins and they will be right back in the title race. A trip to Upton Park is never easy, but this may be the time to go there – with the Hammers failing to score in their last two away games at Wigan and Blackburn, as well as losing to Spurs at home the time before that.
Liverpool have registered confidence-boosting back-to-back league wins and they will be hopeful of keeping a clean sheet in this one, with the Hammers failing to score in eight of their last 16 home games, as well as six of their last eight home games against the Big Four. Rafa Benitez’s side haven’t conceded in 10 of their last 16 away games against middle-third teams.
West Ham tend to keep it tight up to the break at home and have gone in level in four of their last six home matches against the Big Four, as well as in 11 of their last 16 against all sides. The goals have been plentiful in this fixture in recent seasons with seven of the last ten contests producing at least three goals, so spread bettors may be interested in buying Sporting Index’s goals quote at 2.8.
POINTERS…
Liverpool to win to nil at 8/5 general
HT draw/ FT Liverpool at 7/2 on Betdaq