Is globalisation dying out? October 4, 2016 The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank take place in Washington this week, against a backdrop of gloomy predictions for the future of global trade. According to its latest prediction forecasts, the World Trade Organisation expects total trade to grow by its slowest pace since the financial crisis this year, [...]
IMF steps up attacks on Donald Trump and issues fresh Brexit warning October 4, 2016 Political risks are the greatest threat to the world economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today, in a thinly veiled attack on US Presidential hopeful Donald Trump. In its half-yearly economic outlook, the Fund downgraded its outlook for the world's largest economies over the next two years and warned a growing backlash against trade, [...]
One calculation shows both the UK and the US are in negative interest rates October 4, 2016 Extraordinary monetary policy and the latest extension of its money-printing bond-buying programme could have taken the Bank of England's real interest rate to as low as minus 2.5 per cent. Fresh analysis by investment outfit Hermes has found that adjusting for the impact of quantitative easing on "true" central bank rates, the UK and the US [...]
Back in business: Housebuilding jumps as Brexit fears fade October 4, 2016 Construction activity in the UK has grown for the first time in five months as builders regain their mojo in the wake of the EU referendum. The closely-watched purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the sector came in at 52.3 for the month of September, comfortably above the 50 score which represents stagnation. It was also [...]
Gold prices hit lowest level since EU referendum October 4, 2016 Gold prices have dipped to their lowest level since the referendum in a big morning of movers-and-shakers on the global money markets. An ounce of the yellow stuff on the spot exchange markets will set you back $1,292 this morning, down 1.5 per cent from yesterday's close. That is the lowest price for gold since the UK [...]
Stress in the City: Let’s move beyond stigmas October 4, 2016 Nearly 80 per cent of City PM readers have experienced poor mental health. If you look around your train carriage this morning at your fellow commuters, that should become a sobering statistic. In truth, it’s not our readers that have been surveyed, but employees across the UK. The charity Business in the Community conducted a [...]
Better infrastructure and new houses: Here’s how to invest for a post-Brexit fiscal stimulus October 4, 2016 Chancellor Philip Hammond used his party conference speech yesterday to tell the public that the government is prepared to take “whatever steps are necessary to protect this economy from turbulence”. Though he gave a nod to his predecessor’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, new spending plans are widely expected when he delivers his first Autumn Statement in [...]
Philip Hammond is wrong to assume an infrastructure splurge will boost growth October 3, 2016 Mention the name Philip Hammond in Westminster, and invariably someone will describe him as “a safe pair of hands”. The man who has been chancellor for three months had been largely inconspicuous in his role prior to yesterday’s conference speech. But after almost two decades of a Treasury dominated by micro-managers and tinkerers, primarily in [...]
As UK manufacturing output hits a two-year high, will Brexit rebalance the economy away from services? October 3, 2016 Damian Hind, economic & social policy research fellow at Policy Exchange, says Yes. Brexit is not a magic wand but it does give us reasons to be optimistic. Increasing manufacturing output and rebalancing the UK economy away from services has been a long standing goal for policymakers. However, the UK’s high exchange rate made this very [...]
Fitch issues latest warning on economic damage of protectionism October 3, 2016 The US is set to grow at its slowest pace since the financial crisis this year, as the global economy falters in the face of historically loose monetary policy and the rise of protectionist forces. Ratings agency Fitch is the latest to flag concerns over the lacklustre performance of the world's largest economy, with a hefty downgrade [...]
