Clint Eastwood’s lesson on economic forecasters’ Michael Fish moment January 11, 2017 Economic forecasters are in the dock. Last week, none other than the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, was confessing the crimes of the profession. The failure to predict the financial crisis was, Haldane said, economic forecasting’s “Michael Fish” moment. Thirty years ago, the BBC weatherman predicted that the UK would avoid the [...]
Corbyn’s relaunch shambles plunges Labour into fresh chaos January 11, 2017 Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn plunged his party into fresh chaos yesterday with a series of U-turns on his newly-minted plans to tackle high pay and deal with freedom of movement after Brexit. In a media blitz designed to relaunch his leadership yesterday morning, Corbyn had suggested the party would implement a “maximum earnings limit”, and [...]
UK consumer spending is set to fall as inflation hits growth this year says Cebr January 11, 2017 Surging inflation is set to dent real wages and resilient consumer spending, according to an influential think tank. Inflation will almost quadruple to 2.7 per cent over the course of 2017, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). The UK’s economic growth will stutter in 2017 as the effects of the consequent [...]
Brexit uncertainty could drag on Europe’s economy says the World Bank as it forecasts a big slowdown in the UK economy January 10, 2017 Brexit uncertainty could drag down growth prospects across Europe according to the World Bank, as it forecasts a sharp slowdown in UK growth this year. UK GDP growth is predicted to fall from two per cent last year to 1.2 per cent in 2017, the World Bank’s twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report has found. In [...]
Global sovereign default risk to increase as credit rating downgrades to outnumber upgrades in 2017 says S&P January 10, 2017 The risk of governments around the world defaulting on their debt is set to increase over the course of 2017 – although Europe’s sovereigns are expected to improve for the first time since the financial crisis, according to an influential ratings agency. Negative outlooks outnumber positive outlooks on sovereign credit ratings, which aim to measure [...]
US fine will let RBS turn page on horror decade January 10, 2017 During the 2008-2009 banking crisis the UK government had to fork out a total of £115bn to rescue Lloyds Banking Group and RBS from imminent collapse, making the taxpayer a shareholder in both. Now a new milestone has been reached: the government is no longer the biggest stakeholder in Lloyds Banking Group, after it cut [...]
Should we rule out a trade war between China and the US? January 10, 2017 Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia, says Yes. Donald Trump is very unlikely to implement the 45 per cent across-the-board tariff on imports from China that he proposed in an interview last year. US law permits the President to make only an emergency declaration of 15 per cent tariffs for up to five months, and [...]
Theresa May’s “shared society” slogan: Another excuse for more state, less Brexit January 10, 2017 I read Theresa May’s article about the “shared society” – assuming it was she who wrote it, and not her shadowy acolytes – with interest. It is always good to know what underlies our politicians’ thinking. But it is a disappointing read, a virtue-signalling undergraduate essay. It begins with the assertion, shared with most commentators, [...]
London job placements reach 10-month high as concerns grow over immigration skills shortages after Brexit January 10, 2017 Demand for workers in London has reached a 10-month high as vacancies in the capital increase at the quickest pace since February – but concern about Brexit controls on freedom of movement has led to calls for a more open policy on immigration. Recruiters found that permanent placements of workers with companies grew for the second month [...]
Single Market blues: The pound’s fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since October January 9, 2017 The pound today fell to its lowest level against the dollar since October last year, after comments by Theresa May caused investors to shy away from the currency. The pound plunged one per cent to $1.2122 in afternoon trading. It also fell more than one per cent against the euro, to a day-low of €1.1491, [...]
