Great expectations: The Darwinian wars of economic and epidemiological forecasting July 29, 2020 A key concept in modern economics is, to use the jargon term, rational expectations. The idea has dominated orthodox macroeconomics over the past 30 years. Not all economists have been persuaded of its merits by any means, but nevertheless, its influence has extended far beyond academia, into finance ministries and central banks around the world. [...]
UK tax rises: How will Rishi Sunak pay down the coronavirus deficit? July 28, 2020 Rishi Sunak’s first five months as chancellor has seen him shower the UK economy with hundreds of billions of pounds, helping make him the most popular government figure. However, talk has already turned to the ballooning deficit – predicted to be around £350bn this year – and how to reduce it to more manageable levels. [...]
UK unemployment to hit 10 per cent as furlough scheme ends, says report July 28, 2020 UK unemployment is set to rise to 10 per cent by the end of the year after the government made the “mistake” of winding down the job retention scheme, a respected economic forecaster has predicted. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) also said the UK economy would take three years to return [...]
UK retail sales bounce back as shops reopen from lockdown July 28, 2020 UK retail sales bounced back in July after “non-essential” shops were reopened, according to a closely watched gauge that hit its highest level since April last year. The CBI’s measure of retail sales volumes rebounded to a score of four in July from minus 37 in June. It indicated that sales grew slightly compared to [...]
Banks lend £49bn to SMEs to survive coronavirus fallout July 28, 2020 Banks have now lent out £49.4bn through the three main government-backed loan schemes, according to Treasury data released today. Banks have given out £33.7bn through the bounce back loan scheme (BBLS) up until the week ending 26 July. The programme sees the government guarantee 100 per cent of bank loans worth up to £50,000 to [...]
DEBATE: Is the government right to focus on obesity as its top public health issue? July 28, 2020 Is the government right to focus on obesity as its top public health issue? Dr Keith Klintworth, managing director at VitalityHealth, says YES. The pandemic has made the case for action on obesity stronger than ever, with research showing that it is the second biggest risk factor for hospitalisation from Covid-19. Not only that, but [...]
Stamp duty cut sees London house sales rocket 27 per cent July 28, 2020 The stamp duty holiday has significantly boosted London’s housing market, with new sales agreed up by over a quarter in just two weeks, new data has shown. UK house prices rose 0.2 per cent in June as a jump in demand for houses outstripped a fall in the number of sellers, the figures also showed. [...]
More than 60 per cent of London firms plan to lay off staff, survey says July 28, 2020 More than 60 per cent of London firms expect to lay off some of their furloughed employees, a survey has said, in a sign of the wave of unemployment that is to come. The Lloyds Bank business barometer found that just under one in five London firms who have used the scheme expect to bring [...]
Boris Johnson’s calorie labelling plan is well-intentioned but economically inept July 27, 2020 Let me start with a concession to the Prime Minister: not all the policies in his anti-obesity drive are outright objectionable. Banning food advertising and telling shopkeepers where they can and can’t stock their products are obvious and unacceptable intrusions, whatever their intended goal. But as a liberal economist, I am prepared to consider some [...]
German business morale picks up as recovery continues July 27, 2020 German companies became more optimistic in July after morale rose at a record rate in June as the economy continued to recover from coronavirus and as spirits were lifted by the EU’s €750bn (£680bn) recovery fund. The business climate index from respected think tank Ifo rose to 90.5 this month from 86.3 in June. It [...]
