Burton Port to put it up to Long Run
THERE is a fantastic card at Newbury this afternoon and both the racecourse and sponsors Betfair should be commended for rescheduling the key races following last Saturday’s abandonment. The big betting contest of the day is the Betfair Hurdle (1.15pm) and all the key protagonists have stood the ground.
I put up both SIRE DE GRUGY and CICERON last week and with ground conditions to suit I’m still keen on both of them. Coral have pushed out the former to 16/1 and that’s a massive price each-way.
The meeting gets underway with the Betfair Super Saturday Chase (12.10pm) and SPRINTER SACRE, also tipped up last week, is a strong fancy. It’s a big day for his trainer Nicky Henderson with Long Run lining up in the Betfair Denman Chase (12.40pm). The reigning Gold Cup champion is as short as 4/9 and although he is easily the most likely winner, I wouldn’t want to be taking such a short price about a horse that hasn’t jumped brilliantly this season.
Now, I’m not saying that Long Run won’t win, it’s just that I think there is better value in backing his stablemate BURTON PORT each-way at 9/1 with Blue Square. The eight-year-old hasn’t run since finishing second in the 2010 Hennessy, but that was an excellent performance and don’t forget that he finished in front of Long Run in that year’s RSA Chase.
Henderson is a master at bringing horses back from a break and Burton Port has reportedly been working really well at home. I’m not a fan of What A Friend and even if Burton Port doesn’t win, he’s got a really solid chance of finishing second.
Venetia Williams’ string have been in much better form this season and let’s hope Ciceron does us a favour in the Betfair Hurdle. However, I’m also quite sweet on her STOW in the Betfair Supports Walking With The Wounded Handicap Hurdle at 2.25pm. The seven-year-old won this race emphatically last year and is only 4lb higher. He’s got a lovely racing weight and ran really well at Haydock last time.
Nicky Henderson’s Bobs Worth has had a minor breathing operation since finishing third to Grands Crus in the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day and has been backed into a best-priced 9/2 for the RSA Chase. The seven-year-old was an emphatic winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival and it would be no surprise to see him add further Cheltenham success next month.
However, tomorrow’s likely small field and slowly run three miles around Ascot in the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (1.50pm) hardly looks like playing to his strengths and I’d be happy to oppose him. His reputation will ensure that he’ll be sent off favourite, but I see no reason why Paul Nicholls’ SILVINIACO CONTI shouldn’t beat him again with conditions in his favour.
Messrs Nicholls and Henderson have the two market leaders in the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase (3.00pm) in the shape of Kauto Stone and Riverside Theatre. They both have solid claims, but they’re not going to be much of a price and my eye is drawn to David Pipe’s I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES at around the 14/1 mark.
The 10-year-old has been tremendously consistent this season and he really deserves a step up to this level. He has never been out of the first two in four starts at Ascot and although this is a Grade One, I think he can be competitive. David Pipe obviously believes so too, as he has left him in the final 14 for next month’s Champion Chase.
Medermit is a danger on his best form, but Gauvain isn’t the most consistent and I’d also be slightly worried about the form of the Nick Williams stable.
The conditions at Haydock are going to be pretty testing and that makes proven stamina the order of the day in the Betfred Grand National trial (3.20pm). The first place to start has to be with the Welsh National winner Le Beau Bai, who will relish the conditions. He stayed on really well at Chepstow and is still fairly handicapped judged on his old form. The worry is that he’s gone up nearly a stone for that victory and he’s also quite short at 5/1.
Giles Cross was only just reeled in last time and he is another with a big chance, but I’m willing to oppose him at the prices. Always Right needs to put a poor performance at Wetherby behind him, while this is going to be a tough ask for Neptune Collonges off top weight on this ground.
Ian Williams continues to fire in the winners and his FREDO looks a really solid each-way bet at 10/1 with Coral. He was running on at the death behind Hey Big Spender last time and has won two of his three visits to Haydock. Soft ground is a big plus and I definitely think he’s got a decent race in him off this kind of mark.
I’ll be at Ascot tomorrow so follow me on Twitter @BillEsdaile for all my views.
POINTERS…
BURTON PORT e/w 12.40pm Newbury
STOW e/w 2.25pm Newbury
SILVINIACO CONTI 1.50pm Ascot (tomorrow)
I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES e/w 3.00pm Ascot (tomorrow)
FREDO e/w 3.20pm Haydock (tomorrow)
Already Advised
SPRINTER SACRE 12.10pm Newbury
SIRE DE GRUGY e/w 1.15pm Newbury
CICERON e/w 1.15pm Newbury