Burnham premiership begins with decline in job postings
Andy Burnham’s premiership has kicked off with disconcerting news for job seekers, setting up new government ministers for a difficult few months in supporting the UK labour market.
The Office for National Statistics revealed that the number of vacancies fell by 7,000 between April and June, with the biggest falls coming in areas such as science and professional activities.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 per cent though the number of payrolled employees steadied as it increased by 3,000 between April and May. An estimate suggests the number of employees fell by 4,000 in July.
Pay growth remained at 3.4 per cent per cent when bonuses were excluded, or 4.3 per cent when bonuses were excluded, which was lower than expected.
“Vacancies fell again over the quarter, but by less than in recent periods,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS.
“The latest decrease was driven mainly by smaller businesses, where labour and operating costs were cited as factors in not taking on new staff.”
Jobs figures became a key barometer for how the public judged the previous government under Sir Keir Starmer.
Employers widely blamed a rise in unemployment since July 2024 on a £25bn tax increase on national insurance paid by businesses, with economists saying the decision had stifled hiring and pushed inflation higher.
Patrick Milnes, head of policy for people and work at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the decline in job figures came as a result of falling business confidence.
“With unemployment for 18–24-year-olds rising to 14.8 per cent, the outlook for young people is becoming increasingly alarming as they struggle to get a foot on the career ladder. The BCC expects youth unemployment to reach 17 per cent this year. ”
Over the last week, Burnham has attempted to distance himself from Starmer’s decisions on business taxes. He said he would be more pro-business and added that he would look to prioritise job creation in Britain as public procurement contracts are agreed.
Jobs market’s handlers
On his first day as Prime Minister, Burnham made a series of surprising appointments to his Cabinet, including through the appointment of John Healey as Chancellor.
Jonathan Reynolds returned as business secretary while Pat McFadden remained as the work and pensions secretary. Reynolds will also oversee technology and science briefs after the Department for Science, Innovation and Trade was erased.
Burnham and the three key Labour figures will be key for fixing the UK’s jobs market.
When Healey was asked whether welfare cuts were on the cards to fix public finances, the new Chancellor said “fiscal credibility is the bedrock for economic stability and national security”.
In his opening speech in front of Number 10, Burnham did not provide clear policy details and suggested he would present a decade-long plan for the UK economy.
Economists will closely watch out for developments on job vacancies, unemployment and earnings growth as a test of Burnham’s success as Prime Minister.
A government spokesperson said: “While it’s welcome that unemployment has fallen slightly, the reality is too many young people are still locked out of work.
“For too long, governments have paid for failure rather than invested in people’s success. We’re determined to turn that around by creating real opportunities for young people, reforming education so everyone has a clear path to a good job and providing the support people need to stay and get on in work.”
Helen Whately, the shadow minister for welfare, said: “Keir Starmer failed as Prime Minister because he did not have a plan. He has walked out leaving growth flat on its back and more people out of work.
“It doesn’t matter who is in charge, they are the same Labour Party who want to put up taxes to fund more benefits. Higher taxes means lower growth and fewer jobs.”