Back Baxter to blitz his rivals in the Becher
THERE’s added spice to this Saturday’s Becher Chase (2.40pm), over the Grand National fences at Aintree, with sponsors William Hill putting up a £500,000 bonus for any horse that wins here and goes on to land the National in April.
Connections of many of the 19 that are entered will be dreaming of achieving that feat, and favourite for the race Mr Vango looks an ideal candidate.
He’s a dour stayer that relishes testing ground and is capable of going well fresh, so there’s plenty to like about his chances here, aside from skinny odds of 5/1.
Another horse that has been aimed at this is the Warren Greatrex-trained BILL BAXTER, who looks a more attractive ante-post betting proposition at 12/1.
He was an impressive winner at Punchestown back in the spring, turning a competitive handicap into a procession to win by 12 lengths, and while he has shot up the weights after that, on past form he remains feasibly treated.
He won the Topham Chase two years ago, so we know he likes the National fences, while his Punchestown victory suggests that he should have no issue with this trip of three-miles-two-furlongs.
A good reappearance run, when second to Haiti Couleurs over hurdles, should have left him spot on for this, so there’s plenty to like about his chances.
Several of these runners are also entered in the day’s other big staying handicap, the London National (3.35pm) at Sandown.
Tanganyika is one of those and he will be a danger to all if lining up, but he may still struggle to contain O’CONNELL, who looks primed to run a big race after an encouraging reappearance at Carlisle last month.
The Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith team are in good form, having landed the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last weekend, and are bringing this horse back to the scene of his impressive success back in February.
That was a good win in heavy ground, which he then backed up when finishing second in the Eider Chase over a trip in excess of four miles.
Stamina is the last of his concerns and given that effort came off the same mark of 132 that he lines up off here, there’s reason to believe he could prove reasonably treated.
A fly in the ointment might be Aworkinprogress, who has won all of his five chase starts to date and looks a young horse going places.
However, the six-year-old is also entered in the Welsh Grand National Trial (1.36pm) at Chepstow on Saturday, and with James Davies already booked to ride him in that contest, it looks likely he will head to Wales.
That makes O’Connell all the more attractive, and I expect him to go off a good bit shorter than 5/1 come race time.
While there are no ante-post prices available on the Welsh National Trial, I still think it’s worth recommending a bet on AWORKINPROGRESS.
All his wins have come when the mud is flying, as it’s likely to be at Chepstow, and the fact he has made a few jumping errors on the way to his victories suggest he is a seriously well-handicapped horse.
He will need to win well off a mark of 125 if he is to get into the Welsh National later this month, so I don’t expect to see his rider holding back here, and it may also be wise to take the ante-post 12/1 available about him for that contest before Saturday.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Aworkinprogress 1.36pm Chepstow
Bill Baxter e/w 2.40pm Aintree
O’Connell 3.35pm Sandown
Ante-post
Aworkinprogress 12/1 e/w Welsh Grand National