UK statistics body to start using new, quicker indicators
The UK’s main statistical body will move to new, faster economic indicators to keep up with demand from policymakers and analysts and to compete with other services, it said today.
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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced today that from mid-April it would use new indicators on early value-added tax (VAT) returns, ship tracking data and road traffic information to give an early picture of the state of the UK economy.
Big data has “allowed us to construct useful, faster indicators of some types of economic activity”, the ONS said.
The indicators will be available one month before the ONS’s official GDP estimate. The organisation said it hopes they will help highlight economic stress through changing spending patterns and indicate trends in UK and international trade.
VAT indicators successfully identified the 2008 to 2009 recession, the ONS said, but are less good at tracking small changes in GDP during times of stability. It said there is a surprisingly good correlation between the shipping indicators and international trade in goods.
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“These new measures will provide an early picture of changes in the UK economy and may aid economic and monetary policy makers and analysts in interpreting the economy”, the ONS said.
“However, it is important to note that these new indicators are not attempting to forecast or predict GDP or other headline economic statistics”, it added.